郭思治:大市交投進一步萎縮宜先睇緊100天線之支持
帝(峰)證券及資產管理有限公司行政總裁郭思治稱,7月只過了四個交易日,從走勢上看,大市不但稍見反覆,且形態仍未見明朗,在日升日跌之勢頭中,恆指至今仍只是反覆於300點之波幅之內,而直到目前一刻止計,恆指暫是由4日之高位29,007點跌至5日之低位28,714點,即月內之波幅暫只得293點,由於此波幅定不能滿足月內之所需,加上一個月之高低位是不會同時出現於兩個交易日之內,故在本月剩下之交易日,定必有更高或更低之指數出現。
如大市欲出現更高之指數,首先要留意的是成交金額,因目前恆指已升至29,000點左近,任何再上衝的目標定必為5月6日所遺留下之中型下降裂口(介乎29,678點至29,480點,闊198點),如能升越此下降裂口,目標將直指今年4月15日之高位30,280點,此亦為今年暫時之高位,大市如欲做到此點,動力方面之需求實不會少,但照月來之成交金額看,大市實在欠缺一股動力,另外,100天線(28,621點)之支持亦頗重要,因恆指一旦跌穿100天線,除形態上漸呈先高後低之外,其時大市亦可能會進一步受壓,但如在月中之前出現此情況,技術上又不算太差,因先低自有利後高也。
教育股近期仍在整固中,惟表現已趨穩定,大灣區最大的民辦商科高等教育集團中匯集團(00382.HK)正在招股,由於估值吸引,技資者不妨適量認購作中線部署,集團現金流相當穩定,課程專業,收生率高,有極高評價。
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