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《大行報告》中金升招行(03968.HK)目標價至51.3元內銀股薦建行等四股
阿思達克 07-04 14:44

中金發表報告表示,認為包商事件後的內銀短期流動性衝擊已得到控制,但中長期內金融業信用利差將持續走闊,拉大金融機構在資金成本、息差及最終盈利能力上的差異。由此,該行建議投資者長期持有負債價格低廉且穩定、資產端有較高風險調整收益的金融機構股票,此類機構將持續跑贏同業。

該行稱,由於2019年全球經濟同步放緩,全球央行立場向寬鬆調整。除包括印度、俄羅斯等新興經濟體和澳洲、新西蘭等發達經濟體已於年內降息外,歐洲央行和美聯儲的議息會議都更顯「鴿派」,為未來降息打開空間。若中國無風險利率出現下降,該行認為能穩定提供較高分紅收益率的金融企業估值可望上行。

中金表示,在信用利差走闊假設下,料中資金融業表現將持續分化。內銀推薦負債能力強的農行(01288.HK)及建行(00939.HK);該行同時看好零售業務領先的招行(03968.HK)、和快速追趕的平安銀行(000001.SZ)。該行指考慮招行在資產和負債端都有強大競爭優勢,上調招行H股目標價11%至51.3元,對應預測今年市賬率2倍,重申「跑贏行業」評級。

至於保險行業,中金稱雖面臨國債收益率的短期下行壓力,但目前估值(尤其是H股)具備吸引力,推薦中國財險(02328.HK)、中國人壽(02628.HK)及新華保險(01336.HK)。該行稱,亦持續推薦頭部券商華泰證券(06886.HK)及國泰君安A(601211.SH)。此外,推薦負債壓力小、分紅率維持90%的港交所(00388.HK)。

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