《大行報告》中金內地城鎮燃氣接駁費靴子落地對行業利好
中金發表研究報告,指國家發改委布了《關於規範城鎮燃氣工程安裝收費的指導意見》,首次提出,在城鎮燃氣工程安裝收費(即接駁費)標準納入政府定價目錄進行管理的地方,當地價格主管部門應以原則上成本利潤率不得超過10%的標準確定收費,現行的標準偏高的要及時降低。
該行指,市場對於接駁費的調整已經有多年預期,終於官方宣布落地,解除市場的不確定性風險,並且超出市場的預期,因為表述相對緩和,並沒有直接設置一個具體金額的紅線、原則性指引,沒有強制管控,從而給了地方執行層面較大的靈活性。
該行又指,10%的成本利潤率定義和核算方法有待澄清,而接駁費審核未必就是燃氣公司合併財務報表口徑的接駁費,故相信新收費標準上限對城市燃氣公司實質性影響或較為有限。
該行認為,公告對整個行業有積極作用,解除了多年來一個較大的不確定性,維持對新奧能源(02688.HK)和華潤燃氣(01193.HK)「跑贏行業」的評級,目標價分別為88元及40元;昆侖能源(00135.HK)接駁費雖然佔比較少,但估值吸引,同予「跑贏行業」的評級,目標價11.11元;中國燃氣(00384.HK)則為「跑輸行業」,目標價25元。
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