You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
耀才团队:港股复市反弹意料之内中烟香港(06055.HK)急升有因
阿思达克 07-03 11:20

耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,港股於假期复市随即出现显着反弹,皆因「习特会」出现较预期理想之情况,特别是在「放生」华为一事上令市场有所惊喜,相关板块亦因此而出现强劲升幅,毕竟相关股份早前股价跌得颇为低残,相信短期仍有力延续升势。但作为贸易谈判其中一个关键筹码,未来中美在科技领域上将无可避免有更多争执,投资者亦宜见好就收。

另外,原先想跟各位谈谈下半年部署及看法,不过由於实在摸不通美国总统特朗普的喜怒无常,因此决定还是先搁置,跟大家剖析一只神仙股,即中烟香港(06055.HK)。

先跟大家分享一些有关中烟的有趣统计。根据中国烟草官网的资料显示,自2014年起,中国烟草总公司上缴税收均超过万亿元人民币;此外,根据中烟香港招股书介绍,截至去年底止员工数目只得28名,以去年收入计每名员工人均贡献收入达到2.51亿元!最後,计及昨日之收市价19.86元,中烟较招股价4.88元累升超过3倍,市值亦已轻松升至130亿元。

究竟中烟香港有什麽魔力?归纳市场说法,主要有三。其一是「独市」概念,作为中烟总窗口公司兼负责进出口业务,业务具高度垄断性;其二是炒作市值超过50亿港元,未来将有资格成为「港股通」股份。最後就是注资概念,毕竟中烟总公司规模之大,只要稍有动作或已令中烟「升价十倍」。

虽然笔者亦认同其概念独特以及业务属垄断性,但未来最大风险还是来自政策因素,若国家烟草专卖制度出现改变,将会对业务有重大影响。不过某程度上,改变政策的机会其实不高;反而是现时估值是否合理。集团於招股书中说明「2019年自烟叶类产品进口业务产生的收入预期将明显低於2018年……此外,就卷烟出口业务而言……2019年增量业务的利润率仍可能低於自营业务……我们於2019年的整体利润率及利润亦可能因此受到负面影响」(见招股书p.17页)。即是若以基本面看,盈利能力其实也不见得特别吸引。

笔者偶像德国股神科斯托兰尼曾有一句金句:「买股需要憧憬,沽货需要理性」,由於憧憬无限(疑似),所以中烟股价或有机会长炒长有,不过这类「接火棒」游戏一向不是笔者「杯茶」,还是留给勇者去挑战吧!

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account