耀才團隊:港股復市反彈意料之內中煙香港(06055.HK)急升有因
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股於假期復市隨即出現顯著反彈，皆因「習特會」出現較預期理想之情況，特別是在「放生」華為一事上令市場有所驚喜，相關板塊亦因此而出現強勁升幅，畢竟相關股份早前股價跌得頗為低殘，相信短期仍有力延續升勢。但作為貿易談判其中一個關鍵籌碼，未來中美在科技領域上將無可避免有更多爭執，投資者亦宜見好就收。
另外，原先想跟各位談談下半年部署及看法，不過由於實在摸不通美國總統特朗普的喜怒無常，因此決定還是先擱置，跟大家剖析一隻神仙股，即中煙香港(06055.HK)。
先跟大家分享一些有關中煙的有趣統計。根據中國煙草官網的資料顯示，自2014年起，中國煙草總公司上繳稅收均超過萬億元人民幣；此外，根據中煙香港招股書介紹，截至去年底止員工數目只得28名，以去年收入計每名員工人均貢獻收入達到2.51億元!最後，計及昨日之收市價19.86元，中煙較招股價4.88元累升超過3倍，市值亦已輕鬆升至130億元。
究竟中煙香港有什麼魔力?歸納市場說法，主要有三。其一是「獨市」概念，作為中煙總窗口公司兼負責進出口業務，業務具高度壟斷性；其二是炒作市值超過50億港元，未來將有資格成為「港股通」股份。最後就是注資概念，畢竟中煙總公司規模之大，只要稍有動作或已令中煙「升價十倍」。
雖然筆者亦認同其概念獨特以及業務屬壟斷性，但未來最大風險還是來自政策因素，若國家煙草專賣制度出現改變，將會對業務有重大影響。不過某程度上，改變政策的機會其實不高；反而是現時估值是否合理。集團於招股書中說明「2019年自煙葉類產品進口業務產生的收入預期將明顯低於2018年……此外，就捲煙出口業務而言……2019年增量業務的利潤率仍可能低於自營業務……我們於2019年的整體利潤率及利潤亦可能因此受到負面影響」(見招股書p.17頁)。即是若以基本面看，盈利能力其實也不見得特別吸引。
筆者偶像德國股神科斯托蘭尼曾有一句金句：「買股需要憧憬，沽貨需要理性」，由於憧憬無限(疑似)，所以中煙股價或有機會長炒長有，不過這類「接火棒」遊戲一向不是筆者「杯茶」，還是留給勇者去挑戰吧!
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