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《回顧》中生製藥、創科及平安成藍籌升幅三甲中石油最弱
阿思達克 06-28 18:13

受中美貿易戰、美國減息預期及本港政局交疊影響,恆指上半年表現反覆,50隻成分股中有38隻上升。今年上半年升幅榜首位為中生製藥(01177.HK),扭轉去年股價頹勢,其次為「藍籌新貴」創科(00669.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK),兩者半年分別累升44%及36%。科網巨頭騰訊(00700.HK)半年累升12.3%,略跑贏恆指同期10%升幅。半年表現較弱藍籌分別為中石油(00857.HK)及中信股份(00267.HK),分別累跌9.8%及8.3%。

國指成分股方面,國指新貴安踏體育(02020.HK)及中國鐵塔(00788.HK)表現最佳,上半年股價各累升42.9%及38.5%,而中國中鐵(00390.HK)表現最弱,半年累計跌17%,國藥(01099.HK)亦累挫逾16%。

【中生銷售強勁 創科分散風險】

藍籌股上半年升幅最大股份為中生製藥,股價累升55%。中國去年推動藥物帶量採購,市場擔憂藥價下跌,導致該股於2018年股價大挫44%,該股1月初延續弱勢一度低見4.53元,但市場逐步消化了集中採購新政的影響,隨著腫瘤科藥品銷售強勁所推動、研發產品將陸續推出,市場對公司未來增長前景轉趨正面;該股1月下旬展開升浪,至4月初股價突破8元水平,一度累升近65%。而券商預期公司專利藥品的銷售增加,能抵銷藥品集中採購後失卻仿製藥市場份額的影響。

藍籌升幅榜第二位股份為創科實業。該股去年股價表現欠佳(累跌18%),該股年初從40元水平持續向上,雖然市場擔心中美貿易戰潛在影響,但公司積極分散風險,3月中晉身「藍籌」。公司指旗下越南新廠房已全面投產,該股在5月初曾最高見60.45元。就擔心潛在受貿戰影響,有券商認為創科所有重要對手,包括其他中國出口商亦受相同打擊。公司管理層亦指,為應付未來五年需求,除在歐美及越南新廠房外,正物色緬甸或台灣地區建新廠,冀內地產能目標佔比於未來三年將降至50%。

【平安積極轉型 安踏鐵塔強勢】

中國平安股價上半年股價累漲35.7%,成升幅第三大的藍籌股。內地壽險公司近年面臨轉型,新業務銷售會變得艱難,儲蓄類產品增長受壓,行業向保障類產品轉型,令估值自去年受壓,但隨著產品整合推動基本因素改善,公司首季壽險及健康險新業務價值按年升6.1%,優於市場預期,券商指由於產品組合轉變,利潤率大幅提升5.9個百分點至36.8%,公司指未來數季利潤率將保持平穩,並於6月中亦正式進行首度的A股回購。

萬洲國際半年股價亦累漲31%。近年受到中美貿易爭端、非洲豬瘟疫情及美國肉類供應增加等影響,但由於市場憧憬美國業務可受惠豬價下半年提升而有所改善,同時有信心中國進口需求有機會提升,料其美國業務第二季營運將可好轉,將會帶動公司今年營運表現。

此外,安踏及中國鐵塔上半年股價各累升42.9%及38.5%,成國指表現最佳股份。安踏近年進行多品牌發展策略,Fila品牌業務錄強勁表現,並成增長動力。至於中國鐵塔方面,雖然發生華為遭美國封殺事件,但內地政府繼續積極推進5G發展,工信部於本月初向電訊商頒發5G經營許可,令市場憧憬其可成中國5G投資周期下的贏家。

【中石油藍籌最弱 騰訊跑贏大市】

中石油半年股價累跌9.8%,成列藍籌跌幅榜首,公司近年飽受天然氣進口損失消息所拖累,其下游煉油業務走弱,抵銷上游勘探與開採業務增長。市場亦關注國家管道公司未來成立,會令中石油未來遇到更多競爭及影響其定價能力。

至於科技巨頭騰訊(00700.HK)上半年股價錄有12.3%升幅,略為跑贏大市。公司今年迎來內地監管部門對旗下多隻自家開發及進口手遊批出遊戲版號,就市場關注內地《絕地求生》手遊何時實現變現的問題,於5月初取得突破。騰訊決定將已推出近兩年營運的《絕地求生》手遊停機維護,同時公司宣布對已獲內地遊戲版號《和平精英》進行公測,將《絕地求生》手遊用戶將會遷移至《和平精英》,為騰訊未來收入帶來增長憧憬。

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