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《大行报告》中金看好金价上涨潜力金属股荐招金及中铝
阿思达克 06-21 14:39

中金发表研究报告,预计基准情形下美联储下半年降息1次25个基点以对冲需求压力,并带动全球货币政策开启宽松周期,因宽松周期中欧央行、日本央行宽松空间不及美国,美元继续上行空间有限,加上下半年全球经济增长下行风险增大,而全球贸易摩擦、意大利财政、英国退欧、中东地缘政治等不确定性因素升温,黄金配置价值将凸显。此外,2019年全球最大金矿Grasberg减产可能带动全球矿产金小幅下降,看好金价上涨潜力。

在电解铝方面,3月中旬以来,国内铝现货库存累计下降36%至112万吨。铝需求端受宏观影响相对有限,仍将维持45%左右的增长,供给由於行业盈利普遍偏低,新增产能投放力度将持续低於预期。受安全、环保因素和铝土矿区域性紧缺影响,国内氧化铝价格近期显着反弹,下半年煤价下行空间不大,铝价具备成本支撑。未来走势需关注需求和库存变化。

个股方面,该行建议在H股中,可以关注中国铝业(02600.HK)、招金矿业(01818.HK)等,前者给予「中性」评级,目标价3.1元;後者给予「推荐」评级,目标价8.7元。

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