植耀辉:港股纵反弹仍存变数维他奶(00345.HK)估值高未宜吸纳
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,港股昨日(20日)延续近期升势,并突破28,500点水平。自踏入本周後,港股累积升幅已达1,432点,表现之强令笔者亦感到意外。由於美股继续炒作减息因素而显着上扬,若今日A股及人民币仍有好表现,港股或有机会继续造好,只是笔者依然认为不论减息以至下周之习特会仍存有相当变数,因此对後市看法仍审慎,若恒指进一步上试29,000点水平,不妨考虑稍作减磅。
亦可谈谈个别股份表现。维他奶(00345.HK)昨日公布截至今年3月底止全年业绩,盈利上升仅两成,表现略令市场失望。虽然内地营业额增长仍达25%,同时内地业务占比亦超过六成,惟由於要进一步开拓内地市场,未来无可避免将增加营销及推广开支,或会令盈利增速受压。由於该股市盈率现时仍高达65倍,估值仍不便宜,故暂不建议吸纳。
另一值得探讨股份为中电控股(00002.HK)。该公司宣布因需就澳洲发电项目EnergyAustralia零售业务所占之商誉进行60亿至70亿港元之减值,将令截至6月底止之上半年盈利录得综合亏损。由於相关减值为非现金项目,故对该公司现金流及营运不会造成影响,惟要留意的是由於澳洲就零售电价的政策有变,於今年7月1日起会降低个别客户之支付电费,将令下半年除税前盈利减少2.4亿至3亿港元,而本地发展亦会受到新利润管制协议所影响,准许回报已由9.9%降至8%。
由於相关影响具持续性,意味中电末来盈利将受不利影响。由於预期今日(21日)股份股价将低开,加上业务发展前景具挑战,因此不建议大家今早「博捞底」,即使打算吸纳公共股,亦宜选择其他业务较具稳定性之公用股份。
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