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中国建材(03323.HK)资产负债表逐渐改善给予“收集“评级目标价7.18港元
格隆汇 06-21 09:39

机构:国泰君安

评级:收集

目标价:7.18港元

区域分化更为显著。全国水泥市场状况与2018年同期相近,然而中南及东北地区令人失望。七月和八月或将因淡季效应而持续承压,但整体的供需平衡预计将借助限产得以维持。?利用永久资本工具、债转股和强劲的经营现金流降低杠杆。中国建材将净杠杆率在2020年前降至100%以下的目标应当可以实现。商誉减值仍然是个问题,但风险正在下降。公司将对其玻纤、工程和水泥业务的经营实体进行重组。

2019年第一季度净利润因大额公允价值收益而激增176.1%。剔除公允价值收益后,公司的经调整税前利润同比增43.2%。总收入达428.78亿元人民币,相当于我们2019年预测收入的18.8%。

我们预计中国建材2019/2020/2021年的收入将分别同比增长4.3%/1.7%/1.5%。低标水泥淘汰后,较高的材料成本或将推升2020年和2021年的单位成本。与2018年相比,非经常性损失的负面影响预计将会较小。2019/2020/2021年的每股盈利预测分别为1.324/1.221/1.205元人民币。

“收集”,目标价为7.18港元。我们的DCF模型给出的公允价值为每股7.91港元。我们认为公司的估值将会随着去杠杆和重组的进行而得到修复。我们的目标价对应4.8倍/5.2倍/5.2倍的2019-2021年市盈率和0.7倍的2019年市净率。

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