《大行报告》中金料中资股下半年估值下行有限吁增持软件、电讯、汽车及医疗股
中金发表《海外中资股2019年下半年投资展望报告》表示，市场估值再度回到历史区间中低位水平，认为H股市场在目前水平上下行空间可能不大。但市场也需要等待更多催化剂出现以开启明显的上涨行情。基准情形下(美国对中国产品关税政策维持现状)，予国企指数目标点位於11,000点左右，予MSCI中国指数在81点左右，分别对应全年涨幅约8.7%和14%。
该行指在基准情形下，预计海外中资股今年盈利按年增长4.4%(其中金融与非金融行业同比增速分别为4.5%和4.3%)，明显低於2018年11%的增速。该行指，在近期中美贸易摩擦再度升温以及中小银行去杠杆压力下，将2019和2020年中国GDP增长预测分别从6.4%和6.3%，下调至6.2%和6%。
中金认为，内地潜在政策应对措施可能包括更为积极的财政支出、货币政策宽松、出台促内需政策，以及针对其它行业的支持性政策。时间点上，G20峰会与年中经济工作会议传递出的政策信号、以及第二季度宏观经济表现值得密切关注。
【料下行有限 荐投资主题】
该行称，中资股目前估值水平有望提供一定下行防护，当前H股市场估值与2018年底时的低点相比仅高出约10%，与全球其它市场相比也存在明显折让，而且股息率与债券收益率的价差也在不断扩大。除此之外，全球和中国债券收益率下行也有望为市场估值提供一定支撑。
中金指出，投资主题方面，建议关注港股通针对同股不同权公司、和ETF产品可能的扩容、香港推出MSCI中国指数期货、以及美国上市中概股赴港上市。展望2019年下半年，中金对各个板块的配置建议为：超配软件、传媒、电讯与服务、汽车、家电与服装、食品饮料以及医疗保健板块(与中国内需相关性更高，而且有望获得政策支撑)，但低配能源、原材料与交通运输板块，相对标配资本品、房地产、金融、科技硬件和公用事业板块。
此外，该行同时列出策略H股首推股票组合，包括安踏体育(02020.HK)、永达汽车(03669.HK)、长城汽车(02333.HK)、中升控股(00881.HK)、蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)、中生制药(01177.HK)、石药集团(01093.HK)、腾讯(00700.HK)、金蝶国际(00268.HK)、中国交通建设(01800.HK)及中移动(00941.HK)。
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