联储降息如何影响大类资产与港股？
机构：广发证券
报告摘要：
港股策略周论：联储降息如何影响大类资产和港股？
6月份以来，市场对美联储年内降息已形成一致预期，背后的原因是什么？对于大类资产和港股有何影响？本期策论我们对此进行简要探讨。
从“加息缩表”到重回宽松，市场预期”“急转”。1）美国经济下行加速。制造业PMI走弱，消费数据不再强势，而通胀不及预期，失业率或于明后年进入回升阶段；2）鲍威尔6月初称将采取适当措施维持经济扩张。
联储降息与大类资产：1）短期股占优，中期债占优。首次降息后3个月内，股市表现较好，且新兴好于发达市场；随着时间推移，债市逐渐走强。2）大宗和美元更弱，波动率抬升。历次降息周期中，大宗商品跌多涨少；美元除极端避险情形多数下跌；而在降息周期后期，市场波动率飙升。联储降息与港股：短期倾向于上涨，中期分化加剧。降息周期开启后，港股短期内均上涨，但长期表现有所分化；行业层面，保险、电信服务、食品饮料等弱周期的行业表现较好。
投资策略：宽松预期增强，等待贸易格局明朗。港股并不悲观，下半年存在不同贸易情形走势，建议“相机而动”。布局确定性：1）持有“弱周期”（保险、食品、运动服饰），关注早周期（地产、汽车、博彩等）；2）贸易基准情形下，关注港股自主可控；3）配置高股息，如香港本地蓝筹。
市场概览与情绪跟踪
本周（6.10-6.14）恒生指数上涨0.57%，板块方面，恒生一级行业多数上涨，消费者服务业领涨，电讯业跌幅最大。HVIX指数、看跌看涨期权比例小幅上升，主板沽空比例小幅下降。
宏观流动性与估值跟踪
本周（6.10-6.14）人民币兑美元汇率保持稳定。10年期美债收益率在2.1%附近震荡，中美利差114BP。WTI原油价格下跌至52.5美元/桶。恒生指数PE9.77倍，低于历史均值。
一致预期EPS跟踪
本周（6.10-6.14）彭博对于恒生指数和国企指数19年EPS一致预期增速小幅下调。
南下北上资金跟踪
本周（6.10-6.14）北上资金大幅净流入156.6亿元，南下资金大幅净流入118.5亿元，港股成交额中南下资金参与占比小幅上升。
风险提示
美元、美债利率上行；国内信用收紧；盈利不达预期、贸易格局恶化。
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