廖群中美本月底达协议可能性不大人行视乎情况或下月中再降准
中信银行国际首席经济师廖群在出席电台节目後表示,G20峰会即将在本月底举行,预料中美元首在会议上就贸易问题达成协议的可能性不大,估计双方或仅表示继续谈判,并不再将关税升级的可能性较大。
他指,贸易战对中国经济及企业盈利有负面影响,即使中美在今年下半年後期达成协议,中国出口及内需全年表现仍会受打击。中国经济增长亦可能继续放缓,预期政府货币及财政政策将保持放松,今年或再降准一至两次,下次时间点可能为7月中,待中美谈判走向较为明朗後进行。他又称,市场预期美国将会减息,中国亦有减息有空间,但相信减息非人行首要考虑工具,短期工具料仍以降准及公开市场操作为主,需待明年人行才会开始考虑减息可能。
另外,若贸易战不升级,廖群料今年中国经济增长为6.2%,相反如美国进一步对中国货品加徵关税,经济增长保6%或有难度。至於出口表现,由於抢出口效应,目前中国出口数字没有很大下滑,若贸易战维持现况,估计中国全年出口仍可有2%至3%增长。
人民币方面,他提到因中美贸易战发生,人行对人民币汇率的容忍度提升,但亦不允许其大幅贬值,如贸易战不升级,预期美元兑人民币今年可保持不破「7算」。
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