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廖群中美本月底達協議可能性不大人行視乎情況或下月中再降準
阿思達克 06-17 10:27

中信銀行國際首席經濟師廖群在出席電台節目後表示,G20峰會即將在本月底舉行,預料中美元首在會議上就貿易問題達成協議的可能性不大,估計雙方或僅表示繼續談判,並不再將關稅升級的可能性較大。

他指,貿易戰對中國經濟及企業盈利有負面影響,即使中美在今年下半年後期達成協議,中國出口及內需全年表現仍會受打擊。中國經濟增長亦可能繼續放緩,預期政府貨幣及財政政策將保持放鬆,今年或再降準一至兩次,下次時間點可能為7月中,待中美談判走向較為明朗後進行。他又稱,市場預期美國將會減息,中國亦有減息有空間,但相信減息非人行首要考慮工具,短期工具料仍以降準及公開市場操作為主,需待明年人行才會開始考慮減息可能。

另外,若貿易戰不升級,廖群料今年中國經濟增長為6.2%,相反如美國進一步對中國貨品加徵關稅,經濟增長保6%或有難度。至於出口表現,由於搶出口效應,目前中國出口數字沒有很大下滑,若貿易戰維持現況,估計中國全年出口仍可有2%至3%增長。

人民幣方面,他提到因中美貿易戰發生,人行對人民幣匯率的容忍度提升,但亦不允許其大幅貶值,如貿易戰不升級,預期美元兌人民幣今年可保持不破「7算」。

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