《大行報告》中金內地基建項目融資條件改善機械股薦中聯重科(01157.HK)
中金發表報告表示,近日國務院辦公廳下發地方政府專項債券發行及項目配套融資工作的相關文件,允許將專項債券作為符合條件的重大項目資本金,使用範圍有所放鬆。該行認為,專項債對國家重點支持的基建項目支持力度有望增加。考慮到全球貿易局勢變化,中金稱重點推薦受益於產業自主化趨勢的半導體、面板設備及核心零部件企業,同時繼續推薦受益於內需增長的工程機械、鐵路裝備、第三方檢測等行業股份。
該行指,工程機械方面,5月行業銷售挖掘機18,897台,按年下降2.2%。國內市場銷售16,744台,按年下降5.9%。5月中資品牌市場份額為63.8%,按年提高6.8個百分點,往前看,預計第二、三季度挖掘機行業銷售整體增長中樞下行;同時,偏後周期的汽車起重機、混凝土機械有望延續30%以上的較快增長。
中金稱,短期看挖掘機銷量增速轉負,未來需要關注「穩增長」政策的落地;中長期看,行業龍頭市場份額仍將進一步提升,繼續推薦具有獨立成長邏輯的恆立液壓(601100.SH)、三一重工(600031.SH),以及低估值的中聯重科(01157.HK)。
該行表示,中聯重科是國內領先的起重機械和混凝土機械製造商,塔式起重機市場份額高居國內第一。2018年公司汽車起重機市場份額按年升2個百分點至23%,塔式起重機份額穩定在40%左右。該行預計2019年汽車起重機行業銷量有望按年增長30%,中聯重科增速有望保持更高,塔式起重機收入有望實現翻倍增長。
另混凝土機械方面,中金稱,由於中聯重科產品升級以符「公路治超」標準,短期份額出現波動,預計全年公司混凝土機械收入增速逐季回升,伴隨公司經營活動現金流逐步改善,市賬率估值存在修復空間。
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