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《大行报告》中金内地基建项目融资条件改善机械股荐中联重科(01157.HK)
阿思达克 06-11 14:28

中金发表报告表示,近日国务院办公厅下发地方政府专项债券发行及项目配套融资工作的相关文件,允许将专项债券作为符合条件的重大项目资本金,使用范围有所放松。该行认为,专项债对国家重点支持的基建项目支持力度有望增加。考虑到全球贸易局势变化,中金称重点推荐受益於产业自主化趋势的半导体、面板设备及核心零部件企业,同时继续推荐受益於内需增长的工程机械、铁路装备、第三方检测等行业股份。

该行指,工程机械方面,5月行业销售挖掘机18,897台,按年下降2.2%。国内市场销售16,744台,按年下降5.9%。5月中资品牌市场份额为63.8%,按年提高6.8个百分点,往前看,预计第二、三季度挖掘机行业销售整体增长中枢下行;同时,偏後周期的汽车起重机、混凝土机械有望延续30%以上的较快增长。

中金称,短期看挖掘机销量增速转负,未来需要关注「稳增长」政策的落地;中长期看,行业龙头市场份额仍将进一步提升,继续推荐具有独立成长逻辑的恒立液压(601100.SH)、三一重工(600031.SH),以及低估值的中联重科(01157.HK)。

该行表示,中联重科是国内领先的起重机械和混凝土机械制造商,塔式起重机市场份额高居国内第一。2018年公司汽车起重机市场份额按年升2个百分点至23%,塔式起重机份额稳定在40%左右。该行预计2019年汽车起重机行业销量有望按年增长30%,中联重科增速有望保持更高,塔式起重机收入有望实现翻倍增长。

另混凝土机械方面,中金称,由於中联重科产品升级以符「公路治超」标准,短期份额出现波动,预计全年公司混凝土机械收入增速逐季回升,伴随公司经营活动现金流逐步改善,市账率估值存在修复空间。

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