光大新鴻基料恆指下半年25,000至30,000點區間波動
光大新鴻基發表下半年市場展望,根據不同估值模型綜合分析,同時考慮到環球市場貨幣政策發展,資金走勢去向,以及中港金融市場波動因素,該行預測下半年恆指波動區間介乎25,000點至30,000點;國企指數波動區間在9,700至12,000點;上證綜合指數波動區間預測則為2,700至3,200點。
風險因素方面,光大新鴻基預期,今年下半年美國將維持貨幣匯率穩定,中國則相對偏向寬鬆。而中美貿易摩擦陰霾仍持續困擾環球經濟增長。因此下半年重點投資類別,應為受外圍經濟波動影響較小,及行業具防守性的相關板塊。下半年三大投資主題分別為消費需求研穩;基建助力經濟及黃金長線看俏。
外匯方面,該行認為,中美貿易戰將有機會拖累中國經濟進一步減速,特別是中美博奕並不有利於人民幣上升。預期美元兌人民幣在今年升破「7算」的機會存在,美元兌人民幣今年有機會於6.68至7.15的區間上落。另外,英國脫歐問題持續,硬脫歐或將帶動英股下跌。
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