《大行报告》花旗中资基建股正提供买入良机料内地将加速基建投资
就国务院办公厅印发《关於做好地方政府专项债券发行及项目配套融资工作的通知》指出,允许将专项债券作为符合条件的重大项目资本金。花旗发表报告表示,地方政府将可透过专项债券发行,用以投资若干资本性项目,而金融机构将会协助相关具目进行融资,该行认为上述措施可能未必会明显提振内地基建投资,但显示中央政府正寻求推出更多逆周期施,以保持经济表现。
该行指,倘若中美两国未能在6月下旬的G20峰会达成贸易协议,市场对中国政府推出保增长措施期望会有较高期望,而该行对中资基建股的选股次序,第一是中国中铁(00390.HK)、第二是中铁建(01186.HK)、第三是中国建筑(03311.HK),均予「买入」投资评级,分别予目标价8.5元、11.8元及10元,但维持对中交建设(01800.HK)「沽售」投资评级,予目标价7.8元(相当预测今年市盈率5倍),因内地对PPP项目发展审慎因素。该行认为,相关基建股近期价回落後,正提供良好的买入机会。
花旗指,内地今年以来基建投资增速约4.4%,但随着上述地方政府专项债券发行措施,一旦G20峰会後中美谈判恶化,内地政府会加速基建投资步伐,并估计中国至2019年年底基建投资增速可达8%。
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