《專題》大摩對鐵塔(00788.HK)受華為事件對業績影響敏感度分析(表)
華為及其70間分支於本月17日遭美國商務部宣布列入禁止出口「實體清單」，摩根士丹利發表報告，列出其對中國鐵塔(00788.HK)受華為事件對業績影響敏感性分析。
該行的情境假設是對中國今年5G建設並無影響，因華為已作庫存及今年推出規模細少(為70-100k)，並假設2020年無新建基站收發台(BTS)或鐵塔建設，明年網絡會延遲推出，同時假設問題會獲解決而中國5G網絡於2021年重新推出。該行對2020年的假設包括首先是中國鐵塔類業務收入無增長、資本開支回落至僅作保修維護水平、運營成本增長放慢等。
大摩對中國鐵塔受華為事件對業績影響敏感度分析：
業績分項│2019年預測│2020年預測│2020年受華為事件影響預測與「基本情境」差異
收入│779.16億元│808.06億元│-5%
按年變幅│+8%│+4%│-
塔類業務收入│721.59億元│721.59億元│-6%
按年變幅│+5%│0%│-
EBITDA│453.63億元│458.18億元│-8%
按年變幅│+9%│+1%│-
純利│54.92億元│57.89億元│-34%
按年變幅│+107%│+5%│-
以上貨幣單位均為人民幣
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該行原先對中國鐵塔今明兩年「基本情境」業績預測
業績分項│2019年預測(按年變幅)│2020年預測(按年變幅)│2018年至2020年複合增長率
收入│779.16億元(+8%)│850.72億元(+9%)│9%
塔類業務收入│721.59億元(+5%)│763.72億元(+6%)│6%
EBITDA│453.63億元(+9%)│498.15億元(+10%)│9%
純利│54.92億元(+107%)│87.27億元(+59%)│81%
以上貨幣單位均為人民幣
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