《专题》大摩对铁塔(00788.HK)受华为事件对业绩影响敏感度分析(表)
华为及其70间分支於本月17日遭美国商务部宣布列入禁止出口「实体清单」，摩根士丹利发表报告，列出其对中国铁塔(00788.HK)受华为事件对业绩影响敏感性分析。
该行的情境假设是对中国今年5G建设并无影响，因华为已作库存及今年推出规模细少(为70-100k)，并假设2020年无新建基站收发台(BTS)或铁塔建设，明年网络会延迟推出，同时假设问题会获解决而中国5G网络於2021年重新推出。该行对2020年的假设包括首先是中国铁塔类业务收入无增长、资本开支回落至仅作保修维护水平、运营成本增长放慢等。
大摩对中国铁塔受华为事件对业绩影响敏感度分析：
业绩分项│2019年预测│2020年预测│2020年受华为事件影响预测与「基本情境」差异
收入│779.16亿元│808.06亿元│-5%
按年变幅│+8%│+4%│-
塔类业务收入│721.59亿元│721.59亿元│-6%
按年变幅│+5%│0%│-
EBITDA│453.63亿元│458.18亿元│-8%
按年变幅│+9%│+1%│-
纯利│54.92亿元│57.89亿元│-34%
按年变幅│+107%│+5%│-
以上货币单位均为人民币
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该行原先对中国铁塔今明两年「基本情境」业绩预测
业绩分项│2019年预测(按年变幅)│2020年预测(按年变幅)│2018年至2020年复合增长率
收入│779.16亿元(+8%)│850.72亿元(+9%)│9%
塔类业务收入│721.59亿元(+5%)│763.72亿元(+6%)│6%
EBITDA│453.63亿元(+9%)│498.15亿元(+10%)│9%
纯利│54.92亿元(+107%)│87.27亿元(+59%)│81%
以上货币单位均为人民币
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