《专题》一表列出5G简述、内地发展5G对电讯行业影响预测
据中信证券去年底发表《5G的产业赋能投资探讨》报告,列出5G简释、内地发展5G对电讯行业影响: (1)5G简述:
-需求来源:移动互联网、云计算及物联网
-流量爆发(中移动数据):基於2016年,预测2020年达8倍,预测2030年119倍
-工信部:2017年末物联网基站规模40万,规划2020年达150万个
-需求落点:5G接入基站(Gbit+百万连接/km2+1ms)、5G承载网-Gbps
5G关注的三大指标:
体验速率:4G X 100倍
连接数密度:4G X 10倍
空口时延:4G X 1/5
打造跨行业融合生态:
-为垂直行业而生、智慧应用生态
全球企业首四份额逾95%:华为、爱立信、诺基亚及中兴(00763.HK)
标准:3GPP-ITU,美国主导、中国参与
核心器件:FPGA等芯片,美国和欧盟主导
中国:3G晚了8年、4G晚了4年、5G进入全球第一梯队
(2)5G发展对内地通信行业影响
中信证券料内地5G拉动通信行业的资本开支超过1.3万亿人民币,是4G总投资1.5倍以上
-基站天线:需求增长4至7倍
-主设备/承载网:料单价大幅提升,空间翻倍
-光模块:25G,空间翻倍
-投资进度:料2019年启动,集中在2020年至2024年,延续到2029年
中信证券料5G无线主设备商旗下国内市场:华为占40-45%、中兴35-40%、其他15-20%
芯片是关键,需要更高标准和性能
-料中国FPGA(电场可程式化逻辑闸阵列)、GPU(图形处理器)及ASIC(特殊应用集成电路)等芯片市场2021年达到200亿美元 (3)5G用户展望
-在5年内完成渗透,超过10亿用户
-料2020年中国5G用户4,231万户、2021年7,085万户、2022年2.75亿户
-料2023年中国5G用户6.5亿户、2024年10.1亿户、2025年12.84亿户
-转化媒介:智能手机、智能家电等
-全球行动通讯系统协会(GSMA)预测,到2025年5G将带动企业市场3,000亿美元的收入
-中信证券料应用领域包括消费、政府、汽车、安防、物流、工业制造、媒体、金融及医疗
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