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《專題》一表列出5G簡述、內地發展5G對電訊行業影響預測
阿思達克 05-31 18:25

據中信證券去年底發表《5G的產業賦能投資探討》報告,列出5G簡釋、內地發展5G對電訊行業影響: (1)5G簡述:

-需求來源:移動互聯網、雲計算及物聯網

-流量爆發(中移動數據):基於2016年,預測2020年達8倍,預測2030年119倍

-工信部:2017年末物聯網基站規模40萬,規劃2020年達150萬個

-需求落點:5G接入基站(Gbit+百萬連接/km2+1ms)、5G承載網-Gbps

5G關注的三大指標:

體驗速率:4G X 100倍

連接數密度:4G X 10倍

空口時延:4G X 1/5

打造跨行業融合生態:

-為垂直行業而生、智慧應用生態

全球企業首四份額逾95%:華為、愛立信、諾基亞及中興(00763.HK)

標準:3GPP-ITU,美國主導、中國參與

核心器件:FPGA等芯片,美國和歐盟主導

中國:3G晚了8年、4G晚了4年、5G進入全球第一梯隊

(2)5G發展對內地通信行業影響

中信証券料內地5G拉動通信行業的資本開支超過1.3萬億人民幣,是4G總投資1.5倍以上

-基站天線:需求增長4至7倍

-主設備/承載網:料單價大幅提升,空間翻倍

-光模塊:25G,空間翻倍

-投資進度:料2019年啟動,集中在2020年至2024年,延續到2029年

中信証券料5G無線主設備商旗下國內市場:華為佔40-45%、中興35-40%、其他15-20%

芯片是關鍵,需要更高標準和性能

-料中國FPGA(電場可程式化邏輯閘陣列)、GPU(圖形處理器)及ASIC(特殊應用集成電路)等芯片市場2021年達到200億美元 (3)5G用戶展望

-在5年內完成滲透,超過10億用戶

-料2020年中國5G用戶4,231萬戶、2021年7,085萬戶、2022年2.75億戶

-料2023年中國5G用戶6.5億戶、2024年10.1億戶、2025年12.84億戶

-轉化媒介:智能手機、智能家電等

-全球行動通訊系統協會(GSMA)預測,到2025年5G將帶動企業市場3,000億美元的收入

-中信証券料應用領域包括消費、政府、汽車、安防、物流、工業製造、媒體、金融及醫療

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