大全新能源(DQ.N)一季度业绩符合预期盈利能力有望修复维持“增持”评级
机构：中信证券
评级：增持
公司2019Q1业绩符合预期，多晶硅持续降本增量，新产能建设稳步推进，下半年有望迎来盈利修复。维持公司2019-2021年每ADS收益为3.80/8.42/9.98美元的预测，对应PE8/4/3倍，给予目标价38美元，维持“增持”评级。
▍一季度业绩符合预期，盈利能力触底企稳。公司2019Q1实现营业收入81.20百万美元（同比-15.1%，环比+7.4%），净利润6.64百万美元（同比-79.0%，环比-42.0%），业绩符合预期；公司EBITDA利润率为24.6%（同比-26.2pcts，环比-14.5pcts），毛利率为22.6%（同比-22.4pcts，环比+0.2pcts），在多晶硅价格持续磨底的情况下，得益于成本持续下降，盈利能力逐步触底企稳；公司经营现金流净值为48.48百万美元（+120.8%），现金回款能力显著提升。
▍多晶硅产销创新高，产能将迎技改提升。公司2019Q1多晶硅产量达8764吨（同比+54.9%，环比+20.0%），略超此前8500-8700吨的产量指引，持续保持满产；销量达8450吨（同比+56.2%，环比+20.2%），再创季度产销量新高。目前公司正进行产能去瓶颈项目，通过更换部分更先进的还原炉将年产能由3万吨提至3.5万吨，且预计将于6月初提前建成，并于6月底前完成产能爬坡。受产能改造影响，预计公司2019Q2多晶硅产量将回落至7200-7400吨。
▍成本持续下降，新产能稳步推进。公司2019Q1多晶硅现金成本为$6.20/kg（同比-17.7%，环比-6.6%），生产成本为$7.42/kg（同比-6.5%，环比-19.3%），均达历史最低水平。受公司产能去瓶颈项目爬坡影响，预计2019Q2生产成本将暂时上升至$8.0-8.5/kg，并将于2019Q3继续回落至约$7.5/kg。同时，公司持续推进4A新项目建设，预计将于2019Q4建成，并于2020年3月底前达产，届时公司总产能将增至7万吨，生产成本有望进一步降至约$6.8/kg。
▍下半年硅料价格或将回升，盈利能力有望阶段性修复。2019年以来，海外光伏市场需求超预期，1-4月中国出口海外光伏组件规模20.59GW（同比+81.0%），但国内市场受光伏政策出台慢于预期影响，上半年基本处于封冻状态；叠加行业新投产能集中释放，年初以来多晶硅价格持续探底，公司一季度硅料ASP为$9.55/kg（环比-1.4%），创历史新低。我们预计，随着光伏竞价政策即将落地，中国光伏市场有望于2019H2大规模启动，硅料供需格局有望显著改善，价格将迎来触底回升，公司盈利能力有望阶段性修复。
▍风险因素：光伏发展不及预期，多晶硅价格持续下降，公司产能释放不及预期。
▍投资建议：维持公司2019-2021年净利润预测49/108/128百万美元，对应每ADS收益为3.80/8.42/9.98美元，对应PE为8/4/3倍，给予目标价38美元（对应2019年10倍PE），维持“增持”评级。
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