阿里巴巴(BABA.US)业绩超预期核心电商持续强劲目标价214.26美元维持“增持”评级
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：214.26美元
摘要：
投资建议：FY2019Q4及全年业绩超预期，核心电商持续强劲，新零售、新科技加速蜕变，公司正处于由电商之王向科技巨头转型关键时期，盈利有望再提速。预计FY2020/2021年NON-GAAP下净利润为1164/1537亿元，维持目标价214.26美元，“增持”评级。
业绩超预期，盈利能力稳中有升。FY2019（201804-201903）营收达3768.44亿元，同比+51%；核心电商收入3234亿元，同比+51%。公司FY 2019 GMV达到5.73万亿，同比+19%；货币化率约为4.3%，同比提升0.6%。FY 2019 EBITDA为1219.43亿元，同比+15.3%；Non-GAAP归母净利润为934.07亿元，同比+12.2%。FY 2019Q4 NON-GAAP净利润200.56亿元，同比+42.3%。FY 2019Q4毛利率40.5%，同比-7pct，主要是因为新零售及进口业务带来的仓储物流成本、云服务布局支出等；FY2019管理/营销/研发费用率为6.6%/10.6%/9.9%，分别同比+0.12/-0.35/+0.84pct。
电商业务持续强劲，移动月活突破7亿。核心电商业务FY 2019Q4收入同比+54%。FY 2019 GMV达到5.73万亿，同比+19%，天猫同比+31%，FY 2019Q4同比+33%。截至2019年3月底，移动月度活跃用户达到7.21亿，同比增加1.04亿；年度活跃消费者达6.54亿，同比增长1.02亿，77%的增长来自下沉市场。核心电商业务是公司发展最坚实的基础，从流量到资金源源不断支撑阿里新业务发展。
新零售、新科技加速蜕变，阿里云维持高增长。FY2019全年阿里云实现营收247.02亿元，同比+84%，FY 2019Q4增速为76%，云服务市场份额连续两年高踞亚太地区首位，阿里云FY2019EBITA利润率为-4.69%，比FY2018的-5.97%显著收窄1.28pct。新零售方面稳步推进：3000万用户使用过盒马鲜生、近2亿用户使用过饿了么。公司正处于向科技巨头转型关键时期，新业务有望带来盈利持续高增长。
风险提示：电商竞争加剧、经济增速下滑等。
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