《大行》花旗升太古地產(01972.HK)目標價至23.8元 評級「買入」
花旗研報指出,對太古地產(01972.HK)持有正面看法,基於其承諾的每年中單位數股息增長。儘管無新回購計劃,花旗認為,太古地產利用循環資本進行資本支出以控制債務,仍具長期增值潛力(股本回報率2.7%,相較3.6%融資成本),並反映其優先執行1,000億港元投資計劃(已部署67%)。
花旗基於太古地產5.6%收益率及可見的投資物業管線,維持對該股「買入」評級,目標價從22.2元升至23.8元,保持55%每股資產淨值(NAV)折讓。
花旗表示,太古地產中國投資物業(佔歸屬租金42%)市場份額增加,預計今年下半年租金增長3%,原因包括:租戶升級及資產強化後的續租租金上升;零售銷售持續增長,2025上半年恢復增長1%(第二季單季估計升3%至4%)。投資物業管線擴張後,2026年北京、三亞、上海新外灘總樓面面積增35%,2027年上海太古苑、西安、廣州增28%。花旗估計太古地產2026、2027年租金年均複合增長率6%,2028年按年增約15%。
花旗又表示,香港投資物業(辦公室/零售佔比分別為36%/17%)方面,查詢量按年增30% ,隨著查詢量(搬遷/升級)增加及場所營造和ESG的努力,預計其2026、2027年起辦公室租金跌幅或減少。香港零售樓面已全數出租,並自2025第二季起同店銷售恢復正增長,租金展望穩定。
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