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《大行》高盛升六福集團(00590.HK)目標價至23元 評級維持「中性」
高盛發表研究報告指出,六福集團(00590.HK)6月底止季度於中國內地、香港及澳門地區均錄得同店銷售增長分別按年上升19%及升3%,相較3月底止季度的按年增為增長2%及下跌12%,實現按季改善,主要得益於比較基數較低。此外,集團整體同店銷售增長按年上升5%,主要得益於固定價格黃金產品按年增長73%推動,而加權黃金、鑽石產品則分別按年跌27%及17%。 高盛表示,六福集團店舖關閉數量超出預期,中國內地淨關店128家,高於3月止季度的60家淨關店,顯示關店步伐較該行預測的2026財年上半年48家更多,而香港澳門及海外市場在6月止季度則有3家淨開店,領先高盛預測的2026財年上半年3家淨開店。 高盛將六福集團2026及2027財年淨利潤預測分別下調6%和1%,反映香港及澳門同店銷售增長復甦較慢,和收購金至尊後帶來的成本壓力上升。 高盛又將六福集團目標市盈率基準從2026財年延展至2026至2027財年平均值,並將市盈率從7倍上調至9倍,與其歷史平均值一致,反映黃金珠寶行業市場情緒改善,由老鋪黃金(06181.HK)帶領及同店銷售增長下行趨勢觸底。 高盛對六福集團的12個月目標價上調至23元,基於2026年3月至2027年3月平均目標市盈率9倍,仍然較周大福(01929.HK)的歷史平均值折讓40%,並與其歷史平均值低1個標準差一致。 此外,高盛考慮到六福集團未來幾季因較高基數導致的店舖關閉及同店銷售增長的不確定性,以及固定價格黃金珠寶市場競爭加劇,同時金至尊對盈利能力的持續影響,高盛認為六福集團上行空間有限,維持「中性」評級。
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