《大行》大摩:英偉達恢復H20晶片對華銷售 料對阿里、騰訊及百度屬積極催化劑
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,英偉達(NVDA.US)計劃恢復對中國的H20晶片銷售,此前該晶片於4月曾被禁,而英偉達最新更宣布開發專為中國市場設計的新款AI晶片,名為RTX Pro GPU,該晶片「完全符合」美國出口管制要求。該行認為消息對BAT(百度-SW(09888.HK)、阿里-W(09988.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK))來說是一個積極的催化劑。
該行稱,例如阿里雲在第一季度實現了18%的增長,預計未來幾個季度將進一步加速。而阿里已宣布未來三年投資3,800億元人民幣的資本支出。騰訊宣布資本支出佔收入的約10%到13%(low teens)(該行預測2025財年為950億人民幣)。鑑於第一季度支出較低,該行料阿里和騰訊在下半年資本支出將增加。
大摩表示BAT的GPU算力優次:(1)騰訊方面:AI應用(元寶、微信應用)、廣告技術升級(廣告增長的主要驅動力)、雲服務;(2)阿里巴巴:雲服務、利用AI改造現有核心電商業務、AI應用(通義、夸克);(3)百度:將基礎搜索遷移到生成式AI搜索、雲服務和無人駕駛出租車。
該行指將騰訊列為行業首選:騰訊擁有穩固的收入和盈利增長,是最佳的2C(面向消費者)應用AI代表,擁有超級App微信。該行已看到通過AI廣告技術升級實現的早期變現(過去幾個季度廣告收入保持雙位數增長),這使得儘管AI投資增加,騰訊仍能實現正面的經營槓桿,而騰訊面臨來自競爭的持續風險亦較低。
大摩表示,阿里為內地行業最佳AI推動者,雲服務加速為催化劑:該行多次強調,阿里雲在捕捉不斷增長的AI採用需求方面處於最佳位置。然而,市場近期將焦點轉向外賣/快速商務競爭,導致股價疲軟。該行認為雲服務收入增長加速是關鍵催化劑(該行估計第二季度增長22%,相較第一季度的18%)。
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