《大行》花旗看好中國醫療板塊 首選藥明康德(02359.HK)藥明生物(02269.HK)
花旗研究報告指,自2025年4月以來,中國醫療保健板塊特別是創新藥物領域的市場興趣強勁回升,認為在夏季財報季前,醫藥外包(CXO)板塊將吸引更多關注,有關領軍企業將受益於基本面的改善、具吸引力的估值以及訂單積壓的持續增長。花旗將泰格醫藥(300347.SZ)A股評級從「沽售」上調至「買入」,並認為大多數領軍企業的交易價格處於低位,而首選公司是藥明康德(02359.HK)(603259.SH)和藥明生物(02269.HK)。
花旗預計,藥明系今年上半年將有多項超預期的表現,包括藥明康德2025財年指引,以及市場共識預期。藥明生物2025年上半年收入亦可能超出預期,公司正按計劃實現2025年指引。對於藥明合聯(02268.HK)而言,更快的未交付訂單增長或使其上半年收入超出指引。
此外,藥明康德可能參與tirzepatide、orforglipron和retatrutide項目,花旗預測這些項目可能在2025、2026及2027年分別貢獻其CDMO收入的23%、24%及25%;而藥明康德也有信心每年新增約10個商業項目。此外,藥明生物有8個製造項目,每年高峰收入潛力超過2億美元,花旗預測這些項目可能在2025、2026及2027年分別貢獻其後期和CMO收入的17%、19%及20%。
至於泰格醫藥,花旗將其A股評級升為「買入」,同時維持泰格醫藥(03347.HK)「買入」評級,目標價分別從34元人民幣和37港元,分別升至67元人民幣和73港元。花旗分析認為,泰格醫藥在政策支持等因素下,將成為中國創新藥物開發行業的主要受益者,並預計其訂單積壓和新訂單增長將轉化為更強的收入,且毛利率應會逐季度改善。
以下是花旗對於有關醫藥公司的評估:
股份|評級|目標價
藥明康德(603259.SH)|買入|88元人民幣
藥明生物(02269.HK)|買入|35港元
泰格醫藥(03347.HK)|買入|73港元
藥明合聯(02268.HK)|買入|46港元
康龍化成(03759.HK)|買入|33港元
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