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《大行》花旗:美國對銅徵收50%關稅令進口需求銳減 料未來三個月國際銅價回落至每噸8,800美元
花旗發表報告表示,美國總統特朗普表示計劃對銅進口產品徵收50%關稅,美商務部長盧特尼克表示這一政策可能於7月下旬或8月1日生效。花旗預計數週內將正式確認50%的關稅率,並在30天內實施。該行認為此消息是2025年銅市場的轉捩點,因為即將實施的關稅將突然關閉美國進口銅的窗口(可能持續至2025年底)。這將促使未來三個月內國際市場(除美國外)銅價回落至每噸8,800美元。然而,由於近幾個月美國銅庫存大幅增加,以及主要銅出口國可能最終談判獲得較低關稅率的豁免,該行預計紐約商品交易所(COMEX)-倫敦金屬交易所(LME)套利交易將大幅降低50%。 該行指,從美國總統和商務部長的評論表明,銅關稅將於數週內實施,關稅率高達50%(花旗之前的基準預期為25%)。該行認為這是2025年銅市場的關鍵轉折點,可能引發國際市場銅價即刻下跌及價差收緊。關稅實施時間的明確性對國際市場定價至關重要,因為這將終止近幾個月觀察到的國際市場實物銅向美國的大量流動活動。 花旗預計將出現相反情況,美國進口需求銳減(美國庫存消耗將取代淨進口需求),這將緩解國際市場實物銅的緊張狀況。該行認為市場將大幅折扣50%的關稅率,原因包括對豁免的預期,該行認為智利、加拿大和墨西哥作為主要銅進口來源國最終可能獲得25%的較低關稅率。 美國將50%進口關稅率擴展至銅(類似鋼鐵和鋁關稅),增加對其他金屬和礦物進口徵收50%或更高關稅的可能性,這與正在進行的關鍵礦物232條款調查有關。—關鍵礦物232條款調查的臨時報告將於7月14日之前公布,涵蓋51種金屬和礦物(包括鋅、鎳、錫、鈀、鉑、鋰)。明確受關稅影響的特定金屬,可能引發這些金屬對美國的運輸熱潮,並顯著推高美國實物溢價。(wl/u) ~
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