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《大行》中金:中短期內美元在全球儲備仍佔重要地位
中金發表報告指,近期市場對美元走勢的關注度大幅上升,不僅關心其短期走勢,也關注其長期地位。美元成為國際儲備貨幣是市場選擇,也是制度安排。在中短期內,該行認為美元在全球儲備中仍佔據很重要的地位。 報告指,一個貨幣如何成為國際貨幣有兩個視角,一個是「水星假說」,強調經濟因素決定某貨幣是否能成為國際貨幣;另一個是「火星假說」,強調地緣政治等非經濟因素的作用。當前,美元國際地位面臨的挑戰增多。 從「水星假說」視角看,美國財政赤字居高不下,債務風險不斷增加,美元的信用受到質疑。從「火星假說」視角看,美國為其盟友提供安全保障的意願與能力下降,降低了美元的「安全溢價」。
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