植耀輝:2024年推介股回顧(下)
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,上週回顧了部分今年港股之推介,本週則到美股。作爲壓軸股份的話,股王Nvidia(NVDA.US)及臺積電(TSM.US)肯定是不二之選。雖然Nvidia股價近日未如過往般「勇猛」,但其年初至今升幅仍超過1.8倍,市值站穩3萬億美元。投資者對Nvidia之看法開始變得保守,尤其關注GB200系列出貨量以及未來新產品(GB300/Rubin架構)之推出進度,此外,博通(AVGO.US)之客製化芯片(ASIC)亦被視爲有力挑戰Nvidia王者地位。
一個不爭的事實是,經過持續兩年之強勁增長,在高基數效應下,未來增速肯定會有所放緩;另外,科技巨企在AI研發之投入是否已見頂、因美國禁令而影響對中國供貨等亦值得留意;至於個別科技自行研發AI芯片當然亦不能忽視。不過大前提在於未來會否出現可威脅其壟斷地位之挑戰者,以及AI是否已出現泡沫。以往在分析Nvidia時已提出其AI芯片之強大不單是硬件,其專門用於加速Nvidia GPU以供AI應用之專利技術軟件CUDA便成爲一道強大之護城河,這亦是爲何在AI芯片市佔率中能遙遙領先之原因。至於ASIC確有望成爲趨勢,但GPU與ASIC在功能及定位上並不相同,故亦很難可以撼動Nvidia地位,何況未來Nvidia推出之新產品在能耗上更具成本效益,相信其優勢只會越來越明顯。
而AI是否泡沫筆者並不認同,有關理由較早前已作分享,不贅;當然有部分投資者仍認爲AI以及美股爲「零」,但只要沒有造淡其實最多亦只是錯過機會而已!
至於筆者另一愛股臺積電,年內升幅亦接近一倍,其發展優勢亦越來越明顯─3納米代工市佔率幾近100%,2納米試產量率已達6成,由其研發之先進封裝技術CoWoS即使已大幅擴產能惟仍供不應求。雖然特朗普在競選時曾稱臺灣搶走美國芯片業務,但在其上一個任期中與臺積電關係其實相當好,臺積電於2020年5月宣佈在亞利桑那州投資,便被視爲特朗普政府任內其中一項重大成就。何況作爲芯片代工之王者,臺積電亦有將關稅成本轉嫁予美國客戶之能耐,所以筆者亦會維持長期持有之看法不變。
餘下兩者股份中,Costco(COST.US)早前已作介紹,最新業績表現亦優於預期。如前所述,在零售股未有其他「心水」下,暫亦傾向繼續持有。比較失望的是洛克馬丁(LMT.US),股價自10月中起走勢轉弱,若明年第一季表現未見改善,則會考慮沽出套現再另覓目標。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有Nvidia、臺積電、Costco及LMT股份)~
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