《大行報告》高盛下調內銀盈測及目標價 料市場盈測有下調風險
高盛繼續唱淡內銀股,再次下調多隻內銀的目標價。該行日前的研究報告指,市場關注信託產品造成的流動性風險,包括信託產品損失規模、房地產融資狀況維持偏緊的原因、以及對銀行構成的風險。
報告指,信託產品是影子銀行業務的重要部分,估計第一季末,信託產品的房地產信用敞口1.56萬億元人民幣,假設損失率17.8%,損失金額可能達到2,780億元人民幣。雖然信託產品損失由投資者承擔,銀行資產負債表並無持有信託資產,但在資產價值減少及產品贖回下,信託產品增長放緩,可能導致房地產融資條件收緊,影響銀行盈利及資產負債表。
高盛預期內銀收入下跌、信貸成本上升,因此將撥備前利潤及淨利潤預測,分別下調約2%及5%,而該行對內銀的收入及淨利潤預測,較同業分別低約4%及6%,預期在基本因素轉差下,市場對內銀股的盈利預測,有進一步下調的風險。
高盛對郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及深圳上市的寧波銀行(002142.SZ)維持「買入」評級,因為兩者的資產負債表及前景較佳,將郵儲行目標價下調4%至5.59元,招行(03968)目標價下調4%至34.9元。
高盛上月曾發報告,認為內地地方債的問題,影響銀行盈利能力,將多隻內銀股評級降至「沽售」並削目標價,其後被官媒批評,報告的悲觀假設存在誤讀。
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