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《大行報告》匯豐研究:偏好內銀及券商略多於內險 看好工行(01398.HK)、招行(03968.HK)及中信証券(06030.HK)
匯豐研究發表研究報告指出,中國正在復甦但並不均衡,該行認為金融股年初至今表現跑贏,但估值仍不高,應有進一步上升空間,而該行略為偏好內銀及券商略多於內險股,看好工行(01398.HK)、招行(03968.HK)及中信証券(06030.HK),均予以「買入」評級(見另表)。 內銀方面,該行認為隨著經濟指標向好,對宏觀復甦的信心增強,而全球投資者對國企改革主題關注增加,該行喜好工行。此外,消費增長應有利於企業利潤和貸款需求,而財富管理產品及共同基金的發行量於3至4月有所回升,且降低存款利率可以鼓勵投資,這方面該行偏好招行。大灣區和長三角可能跑贏,料該些地區的房地產市場更具韌性,且地方政府的財政狀況也更強,這方面看好交通銀行(03328.HK)及招行。 內險方面,該行認為新業務價值增長勢頭有望在第二季延續,但由於產品結構轉向儲蓄產品並不有利,和危疾產品復甦緩慢,可能令新業務價值利潤收窄;平均長期投資回報率穩定在約5%水平;監管機構提供降低定價費率的窗口指導,降低儲蓄產品相對於理財產品的競爭力。該行維持對國企保險公司的中性立場,偏好於中國平安(02318.HK)。 券商股方面,儘管自今年4月以來日均成交量有所回升,但該行正尋求券商股下一個推動升勢的因素,包括可能降低經紀商融資成本的政策支持、新股發行情緒改善及海外投資者投資A股的勢頭等。該行看好中信証券。
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