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光大:港股和A股的市場拐點已至,短期佈局彈性品種,中期關注醫藥和消費

四季度後半段或將陸續看到更多的利好因素出現,包括疫情防控優化、地產逐步修復以及海外風險進一步緩和,而這一系列因素將推動市場繼續上行。

來源:智通財經

光大證券發佈研究報告稱,四季度後半段或將陸續看到更多的利好因素出現,包括疫情防控優化、地產逐步修復以及海外風險進一步緩和,而這一系列因素將推動市場繼續上行。因此,該行認爲當前港股和A股的市場拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻,短期佈局彈性品種,中期關注醫藥和消費板塊。

光大證券主要觀點如下:

風險偏好修復有望推動港股持續回暖

國內利好政策持續發力,地緣政治風險也有所降低,帶動港股市場情緒回暖。

1)地產流動性風險減小,銷售數據有望進一步邊際改善。近期政策內容堅定了市場對房地產行業融資修復的信心,有利於引導市場對民營房企風險偏好的修復。

2)11月、12月經濟數據或將底部回升。港股市場企穩回升的關鍵在於中國經濟景氣度的回升,這需要等待更多數據的驗證。向後看,隨着我國防疫政策的進一步優化以及地產利好政策帶動地產行業逐步修復,我國經濟有望進一步企穩回升。

3)海外風險或將進一步緩和,海外資金恢復持續淨流入狀態。美國中期選舉已經基本塵埃落定。短期中美博弈將進入真空期,海外風險的不確定性將逐漸收束,利於港股市場的持續復甦。

4)美元見頂,人民幣匯率將保持在合理均衡的水平上,利好於港股持續修復。隨着美國通脹拐點已現,美聯儲加息節奏或將放緩。歷史上來看美元指數往往領先於美聯儲加息終點見頂,因此美元指數本輪週期大概率已經見頂。預計人民幣匯率將保持在合理均衡的水平上,利好於港股持續修復。

拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻。目前市場正逐步反彈,根據前面的分析,該行認爲四季度後半段或將陸續看到更多的利好因素出現,包括疫情防控優化、地產逐步修復以及海外風險進一步緩和,而這一系列因素將推動市場繼續上行。因此,該行認爲當前港股和A股的市場拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻。

拐點已至,持續看好市場反攻

短期佈局彈性品種。該行認爲市場在反彈的短期內,各行業表現將會較爲均衡。主要關注兩條主線,一是彈性品種主線,主要包括建築材料、食品飲料、電子、汽車、電力設備及醫藥生物等行業;二是政策邊際改善的安全主線,主要包括電子、計算機、國防軍工等行業。

中期關注醫藥和消費板塊。1)從三季報來看,下遊板塊業績改善明顯,未來隨着疫情擾動和地產壓力等因素的逐步緩解,消費有望進一步復甦,消費板塊有望迎來拐點。在具體的配置方向上,該行建議關注食品飲料、家電、零售、社會服務等行業;2)近期醫藥板塊國內利好政策頻現,此外,偏股型基金對於醫藥生物的配置比例目前處於歷史低位,醫藥板塊的戰略性機會值得關注。

風險分析:1)國際油價再度上漲;2)海外市場波動加劇。

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