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《大行報告》麥格理:按揭息率可能重設 下調多隻內銀股目標價
麥格理發表研究報告指,在過去12個月,國營銀行股價跑贏恆指達42%及滬深300指數達20%,惟該行認為投資者仍持審慎態度;加上坊間越來越多聲音討論有關現時按揭息率可能重設,以更接近新的按揭息率,該行相信此舉動可能性高,主要是在過去8年間,居民債務負擔錄得近翻倍的增長,若最終實現,該行相信對國企銀行影響最大。 該行預料,國企銀行及招行(03968.HK)的抵押貸款淨值報酬率(RoE)分別為106%及212%,而RoE將無可避免地下跌,主要是其淨利差收窄、獲取客戶成本上升、中期潛在資本費用增加。 該行表示,該行業首選為中國銀行(03988.HK)H股及A股,主要是擁有較多的外幣資產,並重申招行H股及A股評級為「跑輸大市」,主要是作為開發商的最大貸款人,而改變其商業模式或會損害其RoE。麥格理下調多家內銀目標價,詳見另表。
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