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股票估值已具吸引力,摩根大通看多A股及港股,哪些行業備受期待?

近日,摩根大通舉辦媒體交流會,分享近期市場觀點。摩根大通首席亞洲及中國股票策略師劉鳴鏑表示,中國股票整體上的估值很低,非常看好中國A股及港股市場的未來表現。

來源:證券時報網

股票估值已具有吸引力

通過與日本對比研究,劉鳴鏑認爲中國地產相關資產雖稱不上低價,但股票估值較之當年的日本已顯得非常有吸引力。回顧日本股市,日經指數在1989年12月升至高點,按前12個月每股收入計,彼時估值爲48.8倍。經過14年發展,日經指數估值跌到了目前的16倍,而同期中國股票估值約在10~11倍,因此當前中國股票是便宜的,其估值中已包含地緣風險、經濟基本面等預期。

劉鳴鏑表示,中國股票整體上的估值水平很低,摩根大通非常看好中國A股及港股市場的未來表現。從年初到現在,儘管這兩個市場表現欠佳,但全球投資者仍是結構性看好。

未來,摩根大通比較看好的是高質量股,即高ROA(資產回報率)、高ROE(淨資產收益率)的股票,主要來自消費行業。劉鳴鏑認爲,最關鍵的指標是信貸的擴張,目前M2擴張較快,但是尚未體現在社會總融資的數據中;當前最重要的是家庭、企業的信心。8月中長期貸款已經從7月的淨下降變成淨增長,如果這一指標未來繼續增長,投資者會有更多信心買入價值股,尤其是必選消費和可選消費中的白電等。

消費、光伏與風電受期待

今年上半年,中國消費品行業的基本面及業績表現好於預期。從140個主要消費品公司的業績來看,上半年必選消費行業的收入同比增長5%,利潤同比增長9%;可選消費行業的收入則同比增長5%,但利潤下降10%。

摩根大通大中華區消費行業研究主管尹賀認爲,相對來說,消費行業的絕對估值還不算特別低,因爲大家對行業仍有不低的期望。中國消費品行業表現最差的時候是今年4月,5~7月則呈現逐漸復甦的態勢,只是復甦的節奏和速度尚弱於市場預期,市場正寄望行業後期持續好轉。

從細分行業來看,尹賀表示,最看好的依次是啤酒、餐飲、白酒三大板塊,其次是牛奶、免稅、運動、家電及美妝板塊。除了消費,摩根大通還對光伏與風電行業表示期待。

摩根大通亞洲電力、公用事業及可再生能源行業研究主管韓詠麟表示,碳中和是推動新能源發展的主要因素之一,“十四五”期間提速發展的板塊主要是風能與光能領域,光伏零部件及上遊原材料有望在未來10個月迎來重大發展。由於2020年上半年硅料企業因疫情影響放緩了擴張節奏,隨後全球去碳化的政策導致光伏需求大幅增長,許多做硅料的企業到2020年底才意識到硅料的嚴重短缺,同時跟進了諸多新投資,但這批投資在2022年下半年纔會慢慢投運,因此硅料短缺有望在未來4個月得到解決,利好下遊的組件廠商。

風電方面,韓詠麟比較看好海上風電的發展,認爲海上風電起步較晚,近期才實現了平價,未來兩年則有望放量,預計海上風電在2023、2024年每年有30%的提速。

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