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以史爲鑑,以經濟週期展望美股可能見底時間

8月中旬以來美股接連下跌,投資者也開始關注如何定性美股6月中旬以來的上漲,是熊市的反彈還是歷史大底的反轉。本次甜點我們以史爲鑑,用美國的經濟週期來推測美股可能見底的時間。

首先,我們採用NBER劃分的經濟週期對美國經濟進行分析。從1950年以來的美國曆史看,一般而言美國經濟衰退平均持續10.7個月,最長持續18個月,最短持續6個月(不考慮新冠疫情20年2-4月這段史上最短衰退期)。

NBER判斷經濟衰退會參考6個指標,我們用這 6個指標簡單平均合成一個指數,從過去 50 多年的歷史看該指數能較好地刻畫經濟週期,且每當這個指數同比增速明顯低於 2%之後,經濟就會進入NBER 定義的衰退。7月該指數的同比增速已經下滑至 1.8%,因此從技術上我們可以認爲當前美國經濟已經進入了衰退,以歷史上平均持續10.7個月算,本輪衰退大約在明年6月結束,如果按照最短持續6個月算,本輪衰退最快在明年1月結束。

其次,美股往往在衰退走到中期後才見底。我們將美國經濟衰退區間與美股標普500指數進行對比,發現標普500指數平均來看在美國經濟進入衰退後平均6.2個月才見底,最快2個月(不考慮新冠衰退),最慢15個月。用NBER的指標衡量,美國經濟在今年7月進入技術性衰退,按照歷史上美股平均在經濟轉爲衰退後6.2個月見底計算,美股大約在明年1月見底,如果按照最快2個月算,美股可能在今年9月見底。

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風險提示:歷史不代表未來

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