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海外市場波動性擡升,全球資產階段性轉折或正到來

來源:泓觀卓見

作者:王涵、卓泓等

最近兩個交易日海外呈現波動放大的特徵:美股回調,10年期美債收益率站上3%,美元指數再次升至109以上,歐元兌美元則跌破平價至0.99。我們自年初以來持續提示,海外市場會持續處在「衰退」和「緊縮」交易的替換中。而當下,大類資產的鐘擺從「衰退交易」重回「緊縮交易」的轉折點,或正在到來。

「衰退交易」的調整,8月初就已見端倪

  • 6月中旬聯儲議息會議加息75bp落地以來,美國股債市場都開始出現情緒修復:10年期美債收益率從3.5%一路回調至2.5%,標普500指數則從底部反彈了近20%至5月初左右的水平。

    股債雙漲的格局,定價的本質是流動性寬鬆——尤其在經濟數據顯著轉弱後,市場開始定價聯儲不久將出手應對衰退。

  • 然而,事情自8月初以來發生了一些變化。首先出現轉折的是美債:8月1日迄今,10年期美債利率自底部的2.5%升至3%,2年期美債利率則從2.9%升至3.3%;然後美元也開始反彈:8月12日迄今,美元指數從105左右升破109,這使得前期上漲的倫銅、倫鋅等工業金屬以及黃金都受到了一定壓制;8月15日迄今,美股也開始呈現高位回落的跡象,且結構上來看,成長股的修復似乎告一段落。

心動vs幡動:8月改變的並非宏觀邏輯的轉折,而是市場的解讀。

  • 不可忽視的是,美國就業的強勁,似乎並未刻畫「衰退」圖景;

  • 市場對聯儲加息預期是非常「糾結」的,整體走了一個「W形」;

  • 但資產價格(尤其是美股)似乎對一些支持緊縮的負面信號「視而不見」。

1)宏觀數據「左右互博」,判斷聯儲路徑的幾條邏輯:

  • 整體通脹預期6月見頂,但供給端不確定性仍存;

  • 美國經濟下行是大概率事件,因而聯儲最終轉向也是大概率事件;

  • 但當前可能還沒到聯儲態度轉折的絕對拐點:其一通脹仍在高平臺,就業比GDP可能更爲重要;其二政治和聯儲獨立性,政策的重心仍在通脹而非衰退。

2)重讀聯儲近期信號,實際是對前期過於樂觀市場的一種「糾偏」。

  • 7月FOMC紀要及近期美聯儲官員頻繁的鷹派放風,都在糾正市場此前對其態度過於樂觀的解讀;

  • 市場近期的調整也是在逐步和再審視這一信號:美股在中報季接近尾聲、8月19日美股期權大量到期之後波動放大,甚至提前定價鮑威爾在本週五JacksonHole全球央行年會上可能偏鷹的發言。

展望未來,在聯儲釋放明確轉鴿信號前,美國股債市場調整都尚未結束。

  • 聯儲放棄前瞻指引,其實在等待的是來自勞動力市場的進一步信號。

  • 後續需要關注的時間點,可能依次是本週五(8月26日)聯儲主席鮑威爾在JacksonHole全球央行年會上的發言、下週五(9月2日)的非農數據和9月13日的美國CPI數據。

風險提示:通脹持續性超預期,美聯儲貨幣政策超預期。

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