中金：港股短期或將繼續盤整，穩增長與疫情防控是核心關注點
受未來增長前景、在美上市中概股監管合作進展、以及中美關係等方面的擔憂情緒影響，海外中資股市場上週、尤其是週五再度大幅下跌。
具體來看，中概股和互聯網板塊跌幅較爲明顯，其中恆生科技指數全周跌5.8%，MSCI中國指數、恆生國企指數和恆生指數分別下跌3.7%、3.1%和2.2%。板塊方面，傳媒娛樂、醫療保健和可選消費板塊領跌，分別下跌6.8%、5.7%和5.5%；而能源和銀行板塊則分別上漲2.3%和0.5%。
雖然進入7月以來港股市場便逐步走弱並進入盤整態勢，這也與我們7月以來的提示基本一致，但上週五的突然大幅下挫依然令很多投資者猝不及防。自5月初反彈以來，恆生科技指數高達近5%跌幅還是首次出現，這也使得市場對於港股未來前景的疑慮再度出現。
中金認爲導致上週港股大幅下挫的直接誘因並不新奇，其中主要因素依然是由來已久的中美有關中概股的監管合作問題。與此同時，國內有關平臺經濟方面的政策立場和行業變化也談不上有利。除了公司和行業層面不確定性外，市場期待已久且備受矚目的年中政治局會議強調穩定經濟增長，政策基調並未出現明顯調整依然維持寬鬆，基本也在市場預期之內。
同時，外部環境也值得關注，如美聯儲加息、美國經濟衰退憂慮升溫以及中美關係進展。爲控制高通脹，上週三美聯儲決定再度加息75個基點。而二季度美國GDP年化環比增速下降0.9%，連續兩個季度負增長，催生了有關美國經濟是否已經陷入技術性衰退的擔憂。此外，上週四中國國家主席習近平和美國總統拜登通電話，中美關係未來走向也值得關注。
往前看，中金認爲市場短期或將繼續盤整，未來增長前景和政策立場或仍將是影響市場節奏的關鍵決定性因素。國內政策立場維持寬鬆、市場估值仍具吸引力以及南向資金持續流入使得短期挑戰不會導致港股市場的整體上行趨勢完全逆轉。
未來值得密切關注的變量包括：1）中國經濟增長與政策變化；2）歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢；3）疫情變化；4）中美關係與監管合作動態。具體到板塊配置方面，中金認爲尋找確定性和優質標的可能是投資者抵禦潛在波動的一個較好選擇。從長期角度來看，更爲持續的上漲空間將取決於目前的樂觀情緒是否能夠轉化爲企業盈利和增長的改善。
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