古井貢酒(000596):勢能延續 升級加速
事件公司發佈2022 年半年度業績快報。公司2022H1 實現營收 90.02 億元(+28.46%), 歸母淨利潤19.19億元(39.17%),扣非歸母淨利潤18.89 億元(+41.15%)。簡評勢能延續,升級加速二季度,公司實現單季度收入37.28 億元,同比增長29.55%,環比一季度增速提升1.84pct;實現單季度歸母淨利潤8.20 億元,同比增長45.32%,環比一季度增速提升10.42%。在傳統淡季和全國點狀疫情頻發的環境下,公司二季度收入利潤大幅加速,表明其產品銷售端的強勢勢能延續。利潤增速大幅高於收入增速,我們判斷原因或歸於兩點:1、公司古8 以上的高端產品持續放量帶動整體產品結構優化,盈利能力得以上升;2、公司加強費用管控,進一步提升費用投入的有效性。淨利率提升明顯,在手合同負債充足盈利能力方面,公司Q2 的歸母淨利率為22%,較去年同期大幅上升2.39pct。此外,公司披露二季度末合同負債為34.28 億元,較去年同期大幅增長54.86%,是去年三季度收入30.95 億元的111%,全年業績目標達成確定性高。“三品四香"產品矩陣成型,堅定發力次高端、全國化。1、“三品四香"產品矩陣成型,古井加速佈局高端。古井目前已經形成古井貢酒+黃鶴樓+明光酒業三大品牌旗下的濃香、清香、古香、明綠香等四大香型的產品矩陣,並在2021 年9 月收購茅台鎮珍藏酒業,佈局醬香,產品矩陣更加豐富。2、古井貢酒具備全國化能力。公司是老八大名酒之一,品牌基因好,具備全國化基礎,近年的央視宣廣繼續提升品牌知名度。古20 主打團購渠道,嚴格控價,形成較好勢能。渠道上通過收購黃鶴樓等方式補充佈局環安徽市場,逐步實現省外擴張。3、公司體制機制改革有望繼續推進,降低銷售費用率,提升團隊積極性,創造更好股東回報。公司預計2022 年計劃營收和利潤總額分別增長15.30%和11.94%,達到153 億元和35.50 億元,我們預計這一目標達成的確定性比較高。從品牌力、渠道力、營銷力看,古井貢酒有全國化的機會和能力,具備長期成長邏輯。盈利預測:我們預計2022-2024 年公司實現收入162.16、193.98、229.71 億元,實現歸母淨利潤30.07、38.55、49.08 億元,對應EPS 為5.69、7.29 和9.29 元/股,對應PE(2022/7/31)為37.5X、29.3X、23.0X,維持“買入”評級。風險提示:疫情反覆,市場競爭加劇風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.