大摩:警惕加息後的大漲陷阱
今年以來,美聯儲已經加息四次,美股在加息落地之後,全球市場的第一反應都是沉浸在鮑威爾新聞發佈會的「語言藝術」之中,股票等風險資產大漲以賀。然而,經過一小段時間的冷靜,市場又是另一番模樣。
本週,美聯儲加息之後,全球市場毫無意外的再次大漲,摩根士丹利表示,投資者是時候當心這種加息落地就極端樂觀的市場情緒了。
摩根士丹利在本週三敦促投資者不要在美聯儲議息會議之後,市場大漲時再向股市投入資金。
摩根士丹利美股首席策略師兼首席投資官Mike Wilson認爲,華爾街對加息可能比預期更快放緩的想法感到興奮是不成熟和有問題的。Mike Wilson對媒體表示,「一旦美聯儲停止加息,市場總是會反彈,直到經濟衰退開始。這次在美聯儲加息運動結束和經濟衰退之間不太可能有太長的時間間隔。歸根結底,加息後的大漲將是一個陷阱。」
在Mike Wilson 看來,風險資產面臨的最大壓力來自經濟下滑,這將在企業盈利上表現出來。另一個壓力是美聯儲可能過度緊縮的風險。
Mike Wilson解釋道,「鑑於增長信號一直是負面的,市場比想象的要強勁一些。就連債券市場現在也開始接受這樣一個事實,即美聯儲可能會走得太遠,將美國經濟推入衰退。」
「熊市接近尾聲」
Mike Wilson對標準普爾500指數設定了3900年的年終目標點位,這是華爾街最低的預測值,意味着該指數較週三收盤下跌3%,較1月份觸及的收盤高點下跌19%。他預測稱,美股市場在上漲之前,將先下跌觸底。Mike Wilson認爲,標普500指數接下來會先跌破3636點,該點位是上月觸及的52周低點。
Mike Wilson 表示,「我們已經非常接近熊市的尾聲了。我的意思是說,熊市並沒有立即結束,還會持續一段時間。我們需要等待市場最後一跌。我不認爲6月份美股創下的年內低點是本輪熊市的最低位置。」
當然,如果美國經濟在2022年進入衰退,那又是另一個故事,在那種情況下,標普500指數將逼近3000點。
Mike Wilson 說:「投資者需要根據自身的的優勢和劣勢來界定每項投資,這真的很重要。如果投資者現在的位置冒着很大的風險孤注一擲,對我來說,這不是投資。」
Mike Wilson 認爲自己的立場保守,他建議減持包括醫療保健、房地產投資信託基金、消費類大宗商品和公用事業在內的防禦性股票。他還看到了目前持有額外現金和債券的好處。
而且,他並不急於把錢投入到市場中,他一直在等待,直到出現股市低谷的跡象。 Mike Wilson 說:「我們正試圖給客戶一個好的風險回報。現在,顯然情況就是不太好。」
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