美國汽油價格持續下跌後,駕駛旺季卻“拉不動”需求
在美國汽油價格持續下跌的背景下,夏季駕駛旺季的需求卻停滯不前。目前美國汽油需求仍低於兩年前同期水平,當時新冠疫情爆發限制了公路出行。
美國汽車協會(AAA)的數據顯示,美國平均汽油價格已連續下跌36天,這是自2020年4月以來持續時間最長的下跌,一些州的汽油價格低於4美元/加侖,但全國平均價格爲4.467美元/加侖,仍比去年同期高出41%。
儘管截至7月8日當週的汽油需求出現小幅反彈,但仍不足以超過2020年同期。美國能源情報署(EIA)的數據顯示,按照抹平了每週波動的四周滾動均值來計算,截至7月15日,美國的汽油消耗量略高於兩年前的同期水平,但低於2000年以來的其他年份。
上週汽油庫存則錄得增加350萬桶,高於美國石油學會(American Petroleum Institute)本週早些時候公佈的數據。消耗量的下跌和庫存的增加進一步反映了美國今夏駕駛需求的減弱。
駕駛旺季的汽油需求停滯表明,近期汽油價格的下降不足以吸引司機開車上路。夏季的出行需求往往比其他時候有彈性。不可否認的是,今年更多的人傾向於放棄公路旅行。美國6月通脹率達到了9.1%,日常生活成本變得更加昂貴,這與汽油價格飆升息息相關。

美國國家汽油庫存的增加並不能抹滅供應最脆弱地區的短缺。由於歐洲進口下降,美國東海岸的汽油庫存上週有所下降。從季節性來看,紐約商品交易所期貨合約(NYMEX)的實物交割地——大西洋中部的汽油庫存正處於10年來的最低水平。任何供應中斷都可能對紐約的原油期貨交易產生巨大影響。
NYMEX期貨價格是美國和全球實物燃料價格的基準。該期貨合約價格的跌勢在過去兩週基本停止。這可能會帶動近期汽油價格的下跌暫停。
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