機構：中期港股上行趨勢更爲確定，建議關注3條主線
短期港股或維持震盪行情，中期港股上行趨勢更爲確定，但暫時需要等待基本面復甦更確定的信號，後續上行空間將取決於盈利實質性的上修幅度。
廣發證券發佈2022年港股中期策略展望表示，中國決策層致力於恢復經濟活力，政策暖風下的中國優勢漸顯，建議關注“兼顧反轉與確定性”的3條主線：(1)平臺經濟：監管政策轉向，關注港股互聯網板塊“困境反轉”(民生與就業強相關的外賣、電商);(2)疫後修復：消費復甦漸次展開，可選消費領域補償修復空間更大，關注“補償性消費”(黃金珠寶/體育用品/化妝品);防疫放鬆吹響復甦號角(旅遊/酒店/博彩業);(3)高股息：港股長期優勝策略爲南下資金配置提供確定性。
22H2大勢研判：底部夯實，望風響應
22H1恆生指數的表現優於全球多數權益資產，體現一定韌性。“穩增長提升價值勝率+美債利率壓制成長表現”主導22H1港股市場風格。歷史經驗指引港股已經實現築底的必要條件和充分條件，迎來長期戰略性配置的絕佳機會。當下市場擔憂海外因素還會制約港股表現，但我們認爲無需過度擔心，美聯儲加息、美債利率、美元流動性等海外風險對於即將迎來基本面反轉的港股而言，不會是趨勢上行的主要掣肘。本輪中美經濟週期錯位的背景下，短期港股或維持震盪行情，中期港股上行趨勢更爲確定，但暫時需要等待基本面復甦更確定的信號，後續上行空間將取決於盈利實質性的上修幅度。
風格展望：成長佔優
美債利率對港股風格有指引價值，利率上行對應價值優於成長，但美債利率高位震盪時期，若成長相對盈利強勁，則能夠抵消分母端掣肘(22H2恆生科技業績有比較優勢)，疊加賠率合意及全球成長風格共振，均指向22H2港股將呈現成長佔優的特點。
經濟及企業盈利：港股盈利將於22年中報探底
我們判斷美國經濟將更快陷入衰退!美國密歇根大學消費者預期指數表明，22年Q3美國實際GDP同比增速或回落快於市場預期。此外美國通脹壓力依然很大，前瞻指標未見拐點。國內方面，22H2經濟呈現弱復甦的概率較高，出口動能衰減或快於市場預期，基建、消費難顯著超預期，中國經濟是否能超預期取決於地產是否進一步放鬆。綜合測算下，港股盈利預計於22年中報探底，全部港股22H1、22H2盈利增速分別爲-6.42%、11.59%。
流動性：外資配置有回補空間，南下資金趨勢增配
美聯儲實質性緊縮節奏放緩需待9月後，美國經濟更快陷入衰退或導致此輪加息週期於年底結束。存量流動性充裕，美元流動性危機可能性小。美聯儲繼續收緊支撐美債利率高位運行，22年美債利率趨勢下行的拐點或於Q4出現。南下資金對港股“越跌越買”，“配置型”思路明顯，港股仍然是保險資金與理財的絕佳“出海”機會，預計南下資金淨流入的趨勢將持續。
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