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7月FOMC前的兩個關鍵數據:加息100BP?

事件

2022年7月13日美國勞工統計局發佈:6月CPI環比1.3%(前值1.0%),核心CPI環比0.7%(前值0.6%);同比9.1%(前值8.6%)。

核心觀點

7月FOMC會議前的6月非農和通脹數據指向美聯儲加息加碼至100BP的概率大幅提升。6月新增就業數據反映需求側動能正在從商品向服務轉化,勞動力市場供需依然緊張,一定程度上構成美聯儲加碼的基礎;6月美國失業率3.6%,與3-5月份持平;但勞動參與率回落0.1個百分點至62.2%,如無此變化,則失業率已經反彈。

6月美國通脹高位上行,汽油、食品和住宅貢獻最大。6月份美國CPI-U環比高達1.3%(前值1.0%),季調前同比達9.1%(前值8.6%),爲1981年以來的最大同比漲幅。在CPI的各項分類中,汽油環比漲幅爲11.2%(前值4.1%),同比高達59.9%。食品項環比爲1%,與國內食品項環比相同。住宅項繼5月份環比上行0.6%後,6月份繼續環比增長0.6%。6月份美國WTI原油現貨價月平均值爲114.29美元/桶,相比5月增長了4.4%。

美國CPI和核心CPI同比走勢開始分化。核心CPI在隨基數因素而連續回落,但速度對於美聯儲而言仍然偏慢,5月份的核心PCE在4.7%、遠超目標區間水平,因此即使國際原油和糧食價格回調,美聯儲未必放緩加息速度。值得注意的是,美國核心CPI的主要支撐之一是住房項,其權重佔整體CPI約三分之一。BLS對CPI住宅項的統計規則使其包含過多的歷史趨勢信息,特別是將CPI住宅項同比和房價指數對比來看(圖2)。這種CPI住宅項對房租變化的滯後或者高估有可能放大美聯儲的政策失誤風險。

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金融市場已預期美聯儲7月加息100BP,10年-2年美債倒掛明顯加劇,美股調整,比特幣反彈。1)13日美國CPI數據發佈後,CME的7月加息100BP概率升至78.0%(8日非農數據發佈後,CME的7月加息75BP概率升至95.4%)。2)10年美債收益率降至2.935%,而對美聯儲政策調整更敏感的2年美債收益率升至3.148%,倒掛幅度從9日的1BP擴大到213BP,這致使10年-2年美債利差所隱含的衰退概率提升至35.3%。3)美股明顯調整,截至12日數據,標普環比-0.92%,納指環比-0.95%,道指環比-0.62%。4)比特幣反彈2.73%,升至19819.2USD/BTC附近。

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