機構：阿裏FY22Q4業績超市場預期，降本增效靜待消費復甦
來源：中金公司
業績回顧
公司公佈4QFY22業績：得益於中國商業和本地生活超預期表現，收入同比增長9%至2,041億元，超市場預期1.7%；調整EBITA158億人民幣，非通用會計準則歸母淨利潤同比下降25%至215億元，高於市場預期15.9%，主要由於好於預期的費用控制。
發展趨勢
-
用戶增長穩健，GMV增長放緩，中國商業和本地生活推動收入增長超預期。
截止2022年3月，阿裏巴巴中國零售商業年度活躍消費者（AAC）同比增長8,900萬人達到9.03億人，淘特AAC超過3億人，受疫情、宏觀疲軟和競爭影響，2022財年全年中國商業GMV同比僅增長2%至7.98萬億元。收入拆分看，4QFY22中國商業同比增長7.6%至1,403億元，其中客戶管理收入同比持平於634億元，直營和其他業務收入同比增長14%至730億元；本地生活服務同比增長27.3%至121億元，主要得益年活躍用戶和訂單量的增長、補貼率下降以及高德的貢獻；雲計算業務同比增長12.5%至190億元，主要由於互聯網行業需求增速下降及疫情下交付延期。
FY4Q22阿裏巴巴經調整EBITA同比下降30.1%至158億元，經調整EBITA利潤率爲7.7%，高於一致預期4.3ppt，主要得益於降本增效和審慎控制費用開支，Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤同比下降24.4%，歸母淨利率達10.5%。我們預計FY23公司將持續優化新業務投放，淘特、淘菜菜、餓了麼等業務的虧損有望逐步收窄。
-
疫情衝擊下預計1QFY23業績探底，618關注需求端恢復情況。
3月起疫情及防控升級導致供應鏈及物流中斷，對需求端造成了較大幹擾，考慮到受疫情影響較爲嚴重的上海、北京等地區佔公司交易額比例較高，我們預計4月份GMV有低雙位數下降，受到去年高基數影響，預計線上平臺1QFY23收入和利潤仍將承壓。客戶管理收入的貨幣化率有望同比維持平穩，直營業務受盒馬等業務拉動表現優於淘系，我們預計1QFY23中國零售收入將同比下滑8%。
盈利預測與估值
目前公司美股和港股交易於2023/2024財年非通用會計準則市盈率11.4/8.9倍和11.5/9.0倍。鑑於疫情衝擊利潤承壓，我們維持2023財年收入基本不變，下調非通用會計準則淨利潤預測7%至1,318億元，維持2024財年收入基本不變，考慮疫情影響，下調2024財年非通用會計準則淨利潤預測1%至1,691億元。
我們維持跑贏行業評級，考慮到電商估值中樞下移，我們將美股和港股基於SOTP的目標價分別下調5%和4%至140美元和137港元（核心電商從2023財年14xP/E調整至13xP/E），對應美股和港股2023/2024財年非通用會計準市盈率爲19/15倍和19/15倍，分別有70%和69%的上漲空間。
風險
新冠疫情不確定性，宏觀經濟及監管的不確定性，競爭加劇。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
