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美股牛市終結or延續?華爾街出現分歧

來源:智通財經

美國銀行技術策略師Stephen Suttmeier認爲,始於2013年的美股牛市正進入第10個年頭,這種上升趨勢可能持續到2027年。這一樂觀看法與悲觀的華爾街同行形成鮮明對比。

Suttmeier表示,始於1980年的牛市持續到2000年(20年),始於1950年的牛市持續到1966年(16年),在過去牛市的基礎上,本輪始於2013年的牛市有望持續。

Suttmeier表示,1950至1966年的長期牛市始於低利率,就像現在一樣,直到10年期利率觸及5%才結束。

Suttmeier表示,美國10年期國債收益率的長期週期比標普500指數的長期週期長得多。在1920至1945年的債券牛市(收益率下降)期間,股市經歷了牛市及之後的熊市。在1945至1981年的債券熊市(收益率上升)期間,股市也經歷了牛市和熊市。在1981-2020年的債券牛市期間,股市經歷了牛市、熊市和另一個牛市的頭七年。

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Suttmeier表示,2020年的回調標誌着當前牛市到達“一半時間”,並表明這種上升趨勢可以持續到2027年。今年,標普500的阻力位在5000點,支撐位在4800點。

但週期性熊市對長期牛市構成壓力。上週五,標普500成功守住3800點的下行測試水平。200周移動均線3475點也是一個重大測試點位。

與樂觀的Suttmeier不同,摩根士丹利策略師Mike Wilson認爲,熊市反彈已開啓,美股下跌還未結束。Wilson預計標普500指數年底將收於3400點。

此外,高盛表示,經濟衰退將推動標普500指數達到3600點。

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