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去年夏天獨排衆議看空中國科技股的分析師,如今說跌勢還未結束
uSMART盈立智投 04-25 17:24

去年夏天,幾乎所有同行都在喊買入時,Manuel Muehl建議投資者賣出中國科技股。

九個月後,相關股票的市值已經縮水約一萬億美元,這位年僅30歲的DZ Bank AG分析師仍然警告,隨着中國經濟放緩和不確定的監管環境嚇跑全球投資者,苦日子還沒有到頭。

在彭博追蹤的70多名分析師中,駐法蘭克福的Muehl是第一個在7月就對中國科技行業發出看跌評級的分析師。他在過去 12個月裏對在美國上市的京東和阿裏巴巴的預測,比任何同業都更準確,自他發佈預測以來,這兩家公司股價分別下跌了 30%和58%。

Muehl本月在接受採訪時以北京持續對科技行業的整頓爲由表示,還有許多風險有待解決,並感覺市場上沒有給予足夠的重視。他說,沒有人知道中國股市目前真正的風險溢價是什麼,因爲市場仍處在尋價過程。

中國嚴格遵守疫情清零政策以及日益黯淡的經濟前景更加強化他的判斷。

他說,宏觀形勢非常嚴峻——顯然存在巨大問題的不動產部門,以及正在完全封控的大城市。這些都在損害消費者的信心。

以中國科技股爲主的恆生科技指數自 2021年2月見頂以來已下跌逾60%,受政府監管從教育到在線遊戲等私營企業所致。自Muehl在7月發出預估以來,無情的拋售使該指數成員的市值蒸發了1萬億美元,導致一些基金經理質疑科技行業是否可以投資。

儘管如此,大多數華爾街分析師仍然不爲所動。他們列舉了一些利好因素,包括較長期潛力、料將出臺的刺激政策和相對便宜的估值。

例如,阿裏巴巴在美國上市股票的12個月平均目標價仍在162.94美元,比周四收盤價高出89%以上。Muehl的最新目標價是100 美元。

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