美國一季度GDP增長預期跌至零！鮑威爾今晚如何力挽狂瀾？
美聯儲主席鮑威爾將於週三開始對衆議院和參議院委員會進行半年度的貨幣政策證詞陳述。今晚23:00，鮑威爾將首先在衆議院金融服務委員會做證詞陳述。
來源：金十數據
市場預期鮑威爾將利用本週的講話設法讓議員們放心，美聯儲會採取行動遏制四十年來最嚴重的通脹，同時靈活應對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭帶來的不確定性。
鮑威爾可能暗示美聯儲將在3月推進加息計劃。交易員將從中尋找關於加息幅度的線索。與此同時，他可能承認俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭引發的風險使美聯儲工作變得複雜。
美聯儲的官員們將不得不應對這場戰爭可能帶來的滯脹效應。原油價格上漲可能導致加油成本上升，削弱消費能力進而壓低需求，還可能推高整體通脹率。
零對衝報道稱，現在美國第一季度GDP增長預期將爲零，滯漲擔憂上升。
鮑威爾本人的狀況更是增添了不確定性：對他連任主席的提名還有待參議院聽證會確認，因此目前還是「臨時」主席。對鮑威爾及其他理事的提名因共和黨反對Sarah Bloom Raskin任美聯儲副主席而陷入僵局。
「鮑威爾將給加息做鋪墊，但他也將傳達一種高度的不確定感」，美國銀行全球經濟研究主管Ethan Harris表示。他預計3月加息25個基點。
「他需要發表一個平衡的講話，表達對通脹的擔憂，承認經濟增長的強勁，但同時也表示我們不需要倉促行事，還存在不確定性。」
Bloomberg Economics預測鮑威爾將表達警惕通脹的論調，但最終傾向於以漸進方式加息，因爲俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機使市場不確定性較高。
「我們認爲他不會明確支持3月加息50個基點。Bloomberg Economics預測，美聯儲將在3月份加息25個基點。」
諮詢公司Grant Thornton的首席經濟學家Diane Swonk表示：
「這是美聯儲的噩夢情境，因爲戰爭給已經高企的通脹火上澆油。這與1970年代有着令人毛骨悚然的相似之處，外部石油衝擊有可能帶來更加根深蒂固的惡性通脹週期。」
截止週一，市場徹底拋棄美聯儲加息50個基點的預期，也不再確定美聯儲3月是否會加息25個基點。短期隔夜指數掉期（OIS）目前顯示，市場預期美聯儲3月加息25個基點的機率爲89%左右，而加息50基點已經完全不在預期中。
ING首席國際經濟學家James Knightley表示：
「鑑於俄羅斯發動軍事進攻造成金融市場情緒緊張，他會更加謹慎，這可能會鞏固加息25個基點的預期。」
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