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機構:疫情企穩,什麼板塊有望復甦?
疫情企穩疊加政策加持,旅遊需求有望回升。

1、疫情企穩疊加政策加持,旅遊需求有望回升。

旅遊是綠色朝陽行業,是現代服務業重要組成部分,2000年-2019年國內旅遊人次和旅遊總收入複合增速分別爲12%和16%。

2022年1月20日晚間,國務院印發《“十四五”旅遊業發展規劃》,提出:十四五期間我國將全面進入大衆旅遊時代,到2025年,旅遊有效供給、優質供給、彈性供給更爲豐富,大衆旅遊消費需求得到更好滿足;展望2035年,整體實力和競爭力大幅提升,基本建成世界旅遊強國。

隨着疫苗接種率提升及特效藥研發積極進展,22年境內疫情形勢及出行政策方面有望逐步好轉,被壓制的旅遊出行需求有望回升,從而帶動旅遊板塊上行。

當前,世界主要國家大多呈現放開出入境限制的趨勢,全球人員流動有望逐漸恢復,推動旅遊、商務出行需求恢復。

酒店行業:國內酒店以中低端爲主的產品結構會不斷升級,有望推動行業整體RevPAR(客房總收入/客房總數量)保持良好增長趨勢。

航空與機場行業:隨着疫情逐步企穩和疫苗接種率的提升,航空行業業務量也有望持續恢復;國際航線復甦能帶動免稅收入和其他非航業務的迴歸,仍是機場板塊未來重回盈利的關鍵。

景區與演藝行業:根據攜程發佈《銀髮族出遊趨勢洞察》,以50後、60後爲突出代表的老年羣體顯示出強勁的消費意願和支付能力。

免稅行業:中長期來看,中國中免成長性與確定性兼備,且存在較多潛在催化劑。

2、中證旅遊主題指數(930633.CSI)發佈於2015年5月8日,選取涉及景區、旅行社、酒店等業務的上市公司股票作爲成份股,以反映旅遊類上市公司整體表現。

指數表現:長期業績優於主流寬基指數,近期表現亮眼。自基日以來,中證旅遊主題指數年化收益達12.28%,優於上證50、滬深300、中證500和萬得全A;指數年化波動率爲27.83%,具備高彈性的特徵。受益於疫情企穩,指數今年以來的收益達9.58%,明顯優於主流寬基指數。

指數交投活躍:2021年以來各季度的日均成交額均突破60億元,流動性較爲充裕,能夠容納規模較大的資金。

指數市值分佈:加權平均自由流通市值爲 455 億,以中小市值爲主。

指數行業分佈:指數共覆蓋5箇中信二級行業,權重佔比前三分別爲:旅遊及休閒(39%)、航空機場(35%)、酒店及餐飲(21%)。

指數成分股:指數前十大成分股涵蓋免稅、酒店、休閒、航空等子板塊龍頭個股,多重概念可輪流把握風口,帶動指數上行。

3、旅遊ETF(159766.OF)跟蹤中證旅遊主題指數,是當前市場跟蹤該指數規模最大的ETF,爲投資者提供了佈局旅遊產業鏈的便捷工具。

風險提示:板塊表現不達預期風險;本基金屬於股票型基金,預期風險收益水平較高;指數與基金歷史表現不代表未來。

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