Oil Prices Retreat After Spiking, Now at $75

The WTI August contract jumped over 5% in early Asian trading, hitting $76.8 per barrel before retreating due to profit-taking; the real-time quote stands at $75.11 per barrel, still up 1.7% compared to last Friday’s close. The widening spot-futures spread reflects ongoing concerns about short-term supply tightness, but the market has priced in only about a 30% probability of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, curbing the willingness to chase prices higher.

Gold Rapidly Cools Down to $3,355

Similar to crude oil, safe-haven buying also cooled in the precious metals market. Spot gold opened higher in the Asian session but continued to decline, currently quoted at $3,355.49 per ounce, down $12.64 from the previous day, a 0.38% drop, and far from the early morning high of the $3,390 level. Iran's restraint has caused the risk premium to dissipate, with gold and oil retreating in tandem.

Dollar and U.S. Treasuries Continue to Attract Safe-Haven Bids

Geopolitical tensions have led institutions to prefer allocating into highly liquid U.S. dollar assets and sovereign bonds rather than chasing gold prices. As a result, safe-haven sentiment has been more evidently reflected through a strong dollar and rising yields. The U.S. Dollar Index is currently at 99.00, up 0.30% on the day, approaching a six-week high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen to 4.40%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day. The yield curve is flattening, mainly due to the limited decline in long-term rates. If the situation escalates again, the dollar may test the 99.50 level, and long-term yields could fall further, further flattening the curve.