騰訊的歷史回購與股價之間有什麼關係?
廣發證券(香港)發佈研究報告稱,騰訊控股(00700)歷史上有7次重要回購,多出現在宏觀環境或者行業遭遇利空之時,股價通常在回購期間表現平淡,但回購半年和一年後常有出色的表現。
而此次公司回購已經實施5個月,股價仍處於低位,建議關注,不過考慮到本輪互聯網監管力度空前,行業增速較前些年明顯放緩,預計股價近期反彈之後重拾上升軌道還需要一些時間。
騰訊歷史上有7次重要回購,多出現在宏觀環境或者行業遭遇利空之時
騰訊能夠成爲港股股王,除了本身強勁的基本面外,其對資本市場的重視也是非常重要的因素。
自騰訊上市以來,總共發起過7次重要回購,合計回購股票7200多萬股。除了2005年11月到2006年4月的第一輪迴購是由於上市不長資本市場尚未認識到公司價值之外,其他幾輪均是出現在宏觀環境或者行業層面遭遇利空之後的暴跌之時。
比如在2008年3月到2009年2月期間騰訊開啓了歷史上時間最長的回購,此次回購的背景是全球金融危機爆發導致股市暴跌。再比如2018年9月到2018年10月期間,此次回購的背景是國際關係緊張和互聯網行業監管加強。
騰訊股價通常在回購期間表現平淡,但回購半年和一年後常有出色的表現
覆盤這七次回購時騰訊股價的表現,該行發現除了第一次回購的特殊情況外,通常騰訊股價在回購時期表現平淡,但在回購半年和一年後經常會有出色的表現。
騰訊第二次到第六次回購期間股價的漲幅平均值爲-1.84%,中位數是-0.95%,回購開始半年後的漲幅平均值爲28.64%,中位數爲25.89%,回購開始一年後的漲幅平均值爲50.8%,中位數爲35.04%。
騰訊的回購對後續股價走勢有良好的指示意義,該行認爲主要原因是騰訊公司治理優秀,對公司的價值有着清晰的認知,同時騰訊投資部門也非常出色,對行業變化和二級市場規律判斷準確,所以騰訊經常能夠在低位回購股票。
騰訊本輪迴購已經實施5個月,股價處於低位,建議關注
騰訊當前處於第7輪重要回購中,從2020年8月至今的回購已經實施了5個月,累計回購780萬股,回購的時間長度和累計股數可以排到歷史前三位。
公司近期的日回購股數均在40萬股以上,相比去年八九月份翻倍。除騰訊外,阿裏(09988)、京東(09618)、百度(09888)、小米(01810)等多家互聯網公司均宣佈了大額回購計劃,顯示行業估值已經進入到低水位。
當前騰訊股價處於低位,建議關注。不過考慮到本輪互聯網監管力度空前,行業增速較前些年明顯放緩,預計股價近期反彈之後重拾上升軌道還需要一些時間。
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